General politics thread (was: General U.S. politics thread)

glennmagusharvey · 2017-09-25 15:46:05

Better summary of the four seats up tomorrow, than the last one I posted. Courtesy of Daily Kos Elections, written by Johnny Longtorso and Jeff Singer. In particular, it confirms what I suspected about the two Florida seats -- that they're still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Irma.

(I tried to list some neighborhood names based on what I saw on Google Maps, since I am vaguely familiar with some parts of the area, but I missed Richmond Heights and I don't know what else I missed. My apologies.)

Florida SD-40: Back in April, freshman Republican state Sen. Frank Artiles resigned after he unleashed a racist tirade against fellow state senators, opening up this Miami-Dade County seat.
The Democratic nominee is Annette Taddeo, who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2008 and 2016, and was Charlie Crist's running mate in 2014. The Republican nominee is state Rep. Jose Felix Diaz. Also on the ballot is independent Christian "He-Man" Schlaerth. This seat went 58-40 for Hillary Clinton in 2016; according to Florida data expert Matthew Isbell, it backed Barack Obama 54-45 in 2012.
Florida HD-116: Because of Florida's resign-to-run law, GOP state Rep. Jose Felix Diaz has to resign from the state House to run in the special election for SD-40. Diaz's resignation takes effect Sept. 26, regardless of whether he wins or loses the Senate race. The Democratic candidate to succeed Diaz in this Miami-Dade County seat is Gabriela Mayaudon, who was a congresswoman in her former home of Venezuela. The Republican candidate is Daniel Perez, an attorney. This seat went 51-46 for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 55-44 for Mitt Romney in 2012.
New Hampshire House, Rockingham-4: This is an open Republican seat east of Manchester. The Democratic nominee is Kari Lerner, a realtor, while the Republican nominee is James Headd, a former state representative. Also on the ballot is Libertarian James Jarvis. This seat backed Donald Trump by a 59-36 margin in 2016, and voted 60-39 for Mitt Romney in 2012.
South Carolina HD-31: This is an open Democratic seat in Spartanburg. The Democratic candidate is Rosalyn Henderson Myers, a member of the Spartanburg City Council. The Republican candidate is Michael Fowler, who ran for this seat in 2016 and lost 77-23. This seat went 72-24 for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 79-20 for Barack Obama in 2012.
As we wrote in our most recent Voting Rights Roundup, Hurricane Irma hit the two Florida seats hard earlier this month, and several areas are still working to recover. This includes Richmond Heights in SD-40, a heavily black neighborhood, which is still suffering from major power outages. Democrats and nonpartisan voting rights groups had called on Republican Gov. Rick Scott to delay the special election a few weeks, but the governor refused.

glennmagusharvey · 2017-09-26 00:32:30

https://thebaffler.com/latest/the-president-of-blank-sucking-nullity-roth

This article is an amusing and relatively short read.

It can also be summarized by the following statement:

"Donald Trump is an asshole shitposter. Not just in appearance -- he genuinely is one."

(So, yes. He is indeed being genuine. He genuinely is an asshole shitposter. And he's acting like an asshole shitposter.)

glennmagusharvey · 2017-09-26 19:49:18

https://theintercept.com/2017/09/25/under-cover-of-graham-cassidy-senate-gop-moving-to-gut-major-cfpb-rule/

Serocco · 2017-09-27 03:08:53

Annette Taddeo, Charlie Crist's running mate in 2014, finally won a seat, defeated a Florida Republican in the state senate, while running for Medicare For All

glennmagusharvey · 2017-09-27 04:28:18

RESULTS FROM TODAY'S SPECIAL ELECTIONS:

FL-SD40 - Dem gain (as Serocco mentioned above)

FL-HD116 - Repub hold

NH-HD Rockingham 4 - Dem gain

SC-HD31 - Dem hold

FL-Senate is now at D 16 R 24.

In 39 two-party-contested special elections this year, Dems have picked up 8 seats and lost 0 seats. (Dems lost 1 non-contested special election back in March, in Louisiana.) Full list of two-party-contested special election results here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=0 (note: does not include non-contested seats, or election contests between candidates of the same party)

meanwhile...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-maria-puertorico-shipping/u-s-denies-request-for-puerto-rico-shipping-waiver-idUSKCN1C12UI

TL;DR the Jones Act, formally known as the Merchant Marine Act of 1920 (yes it's that old), which puts stiff restrictions on the ships that are allowed to use public ports, is typically waived in the aftermath of severe natural disasters, such as Hurricanes Harvey and Irma this year.

The Trump administration refused to grant a waiver for Puerto Rico in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria.

glennmagusharvey · 2017-09-27 18:19:56

Also, the AL-Sen special Republican primary runoff was held yesterday and former state supreme court judge Roy Moore, who twice got kicked off for not upholding his duties by being a giant culture-warrior prick about things, defeated incumbent appointed senator Luther Strange (R-AL), who was heavily supported by Senate Majority Leader McConnell, and for whom Trump even gave speeches.

Moore faces Doug Jones, a former United States Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama, on December 12. (NOTE: It's not in November, no matter what Trump says: https://www.mediaite.com/online/trump-congratulates-roy-moore-on-twitter-after-his-candidate-loses-win-in-dec/ )

lrdgck · 2017-09-27 18:21:17

Guys, do you have already that recording of Trump cackling maniacally?

glennmagusharvey · 2017-09-28 07:18:29

lrdgck wrote: »

Guys, do you have already that recording of Trump cackling maniacally?

not yet, but he did already shitpost everywhere, e.g. that quip of his bragging that he could shoot someone in the NYC in broad daylight and no one would care, as well as the infamous "grab her by the pussy" video, and many, many, many more

meanwhile
Lin-Manuel Miranda, last year, foresaw the apocalyptic disaster that has now unfolded, at around 19:52

fourteenwings · 2017-09-28 08:39:27

It's not in November, no matter what Trump says

It's hilarious that not even Donald Trump can come close to controlling the forces that got him elected.

Anyways I think it's been pointed out that this guy will win no matter what, so that's yet another thing to look forward to~

lrdgck · 2017-09-28 13:46:39

Apparently Trump announced some sort of tax reform plan. Needless to say, mostly involving cutting them. The short note on it that I've read makes it sound surprisingly like something more positive than your typical Trump tomfoolery.

Oh, and by the way.

Luther Strange

Does this sound like a name of a comic book hero to you too?

fourteenwings · 2017-09-28 15:57:50

Sounds more like the main character of a modern midwest cop novel.

glennmagusharvey · 2017-09-28 17:42:33

lrdgck wrote: »

Apparently Trump announced some sort of tax reform plan. Needless to say, mostly involving cutting them. The short note on it that I've read makes it sound surprisingly like something more positive than your typical Trump tomfoolery.

In short, it's tax cuts for the wealthy, and tax hikes for the poor. I'll let today's electoral-vote.com report explain the details:

The proposal, of course, is full of goodies for the rich. As expected, it would cut the top marginal rate 39.6% to 35%. Since it requires an income of over $470,000 a year to qualify for that bracket, this only benefits the wealthy. Similarly, Trump wants to eliminate the estate tax entirely. Since the first $5.5 million in value is already exempt, this is again a concession only for the very wealthy (only 0.2% of American estates pay this tax). The president would eliminate the alternative minimum tax, which exists to keep very wealthy people like him from reducing their tax burden too aggressively. He would also reduce the tax burden for "small businesses" to 25%. This latter proposal will be marketed aggressively using phrases like "middle America" and "job creators." However, the proposal actually defines "small businesses" as "pass-through entities," which includes partnerships, limited liability companies, and S corporations. Certainly, there are some small businesses that are constructed in this way. However, these devices are also used by the ultra-wealthy to avoid paying personal income tax. Readers will never guess, for example, which prominent American billionaire owns over 500 pass-through entities all by himself. Let's just say he's under the orange curtain.

Of course, it wouldn't just be wealthy individuals who would receive an early Christmas present. The corporate tax rate would be slashed from 35% to 20%. Also, those corporations that have money and property stashed overseas—Apple, Google, and Microsoft are among the most prominent—would be allowed to bring those assets into the United States at a sweetheart rate of around 10%. Because if there's anything a company like Apple needs, what with its $321 billion in assets, it's a tax break.

Meanwhile, many not-so-wealthy Americans would take a beating, often while being told that the Trump tax plan is actually better for them. For example, the plan proposes doubling the standard deduction. This is used by people who do not itemize their tax returns, and makes a certain portion of their income tax-free. So, doubling it means more tax-free income, right? Not so fast. Trump wants to change the rate structure for single-parent households, which would result in some of the nation's most vulnerable parents paying more (while raising some of the most vulnerable kids). He also wants to get rid of the personal deduction of $4,000 for each household dependent. Currently, a two-person household (say, a married couple) gets about $12,000 in standard deductions, and $8,000 in personal deductions, for a total of $20,000 in (effectively) tax-free income. Under Trump's plan, the $12,000 would double to $24,000 and the $8,000 would go away, for a net gain of $4,000. A three-person household (say, a married couple with one child) currently gets the same $12,000 in standard deductions plus $12,000 in personal deductions, for a total of $24,000. Their deduction would also jump to $24,000, their personal deductions would also drop to $0, for a total of $24,000. So, for them, it's a wash. And beyond that, it's a net loss. Two kids? Minus $4,000 in deductions. Five kids? Minus $16,000 in deductions.

...

Trump is promising 6% annual growth for the rest of his term, which might indeed make his plan revenue-neutral if it happened, but that is about as likely as a herd of unicorns appearing at his next rally. According to the World Bank, the U.S. has achieved that level of growth precisely once in the past 50 years (1973), and has never pulled it off for three years in a row. Consequently, it is almost certain that the Trump plan will blow a giant hole in the budget. This will mean borrowing more money, and then will eventually culminate in a crisis of some sort, most likely to manifest itself when a Democrat is in the White House, left holding the bag.

----

lrdgck wrote: »

Oh, and by the way.

Luther Strange

Does this sound like a name of a comic book hero to you too?

Yes. Yes it does.

glennmagusharvey · 2017-09-30 19:44:01

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/30/donald-trump-attacks-puerto-rico-mayor-carmen-yulin-cruz

https://twitter.com/therealmonsoon/status/914197659770073088

glennmagusharvey · 2017-10-01 00:54:12

Meanwhile, these shits are on the horizon.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/deep-pocketed-republican-group-ready-to-battle-obama-and-holder-over-redistricting-control/article/2635885

glennmagusharvey · 2017-10-04 07:20:55

today in the joint departments of bizarre and offensive:

https://splinternews.com/let-them-eat-paper-towels-1819114183

tldr Donald Trump throws paper towels at hurricane survivors in Puerto Rico

fourteenwings · 2017-10-04 16:08:57

I'm pretty sure it was weirder/more offensive when he was like "You guys are suck so much, can't even handle a teensy tiny event that didn't kill near as many people as Katrina.".

glennmagusharvey · 2017-10-09 02:14:32

fourteenwings wrote: »

I'm pretty sure it was weirder/more offensive when he was like "You guys are suck so much, can't even handle a teensy tiny event that didn't kill near as many people as Katrina.".

I've stopped trying to rate the offensiveness of Donald Trump's words.

It's like trying to decide which pile of poop in one's living room is the stinkiest. The problem isn't which one's the stinkiest. The problem is that there's poop in the living room in the first place.

glennmagusharvey · 2017-10-09 23:59:28

https://twitter.com/SenBobCorker/status/917045348820049920

That's Tennessee Republican U.S. Senator Bob Corker. Buy some popcorn stocks, folks.

fourteenwings · 2017-10-10 05:54:01

It's kind of ridiculous how many fights Donald Trump is fighting all at once.

Meanwhile, there's suddenly a gigantic rift between the U.S. and Turkey over what is essentially the type of thing Elizabeth deals with in one episode of Madam Secretary.

glennmagusharvey · 2017-10-10 19:21:40

Warning: spicy. (i.e. intentionally discomforting in a sarcastic way)

https://www.thoughtsandprayersthegame.com/

glennmagusharvey · 2017-10-13 02:14:36

sort of a list of the current status of different environmental protections that the Trump administration hates: https://www.nrdc.org/fighting-trump-agenda

glennmagusharvey · 2017-10-16 18:04:29

wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article178813586.html

Dear Middle-of-Nowhere,

You don't have a monopoly on crazy people.

Sincerely,
Florida

lrdgck · 2017-10-17 19:02:02

As a denizen of Middle-of-Nowhere, I humbly nod in acknowledgement of the American crazy.

glennmagusharvey · 2017-10-17 19:50:05

http://periodismoinvestigativo.com/2017/10/masked-and-armed-with-rifles-military-security-firms-roam-streets-of-san-juan/

TL;DR people working for notorious private military contractor Academi (f.k.a. Blackwater) are now being used to patrol Puerto Rico

glennmagusharvey · 2017-10-17 19:55:35

lrdgck wrote: »

As a denizen of Middle-of-Nowhere, I humbly nod in acknowledgement of the American crazy.

Well, your folks are no slouches either. :P

fourteenwings · 2017-10-18 04:42:56

Academi (f.k.a. Blackwater)

This feels like a supervillain trick.

glennmagusharvey · 2017-10-27 17:24:23

https://twitter.com/RalphNortham/status/923575219675156480

Meanwhile in Oregon, as reported by DKE user James Allen:

OR-Leg: Gov. Brown nominates st. Senators Richard Devlin (D-Tualatin) and Minority Leader Ted Ferrioli (R-John Day) to environmental council, potentially opening up two senate seats.

Devlin represents wealthier, whiter suburbs of Lake Oswego, West Linn, and Tualatin, and my area of SW Portland, in what’s become a safe seat for Democrats and swung even further our way last year. Republican st. Rep Julie Parrish represents Tualatin and West Linn in the House, but even her seat went for Clinton last year by over 20 points, and the
rest of the district is much more Democratic.

Ferrioli represents a broad swath of Eastern and Central Oregon stretching from The Dalles to the SE corner of the state, and it’s beyond safe R.

fourteenwings · 2017-10-30 15:41:05

what is going ooooooooooooooooooon

glennmagusharvey · 2017-10-30 16:17:44

A grand jury decided on charges and Paul Manafort and Richard Gates (who is apparently someone so obscure that Wikipedia barely has any info on him) were arrested on 12 counts of various white-collar crimes.

fourteenwings · 2017-10-30 16:21:10

Yeah, that's what the article says.

I mean overall; Is there an endgame, is this the beginning of some sort of end that's sort of in the middle of the endgame, or is it just smoke that's distracting us all whilst Trump quietly fires Janet Yellen?

Howdy, Stranger!

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General politics thread (was: General U.S. politics thread)

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