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General politics thread (was: General U.S. politics thread)

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Comments

  • Creature - Florida Dragon Turtle Human
    Well, Doug Jones is finally taking the gloves off in Alabama, with one week to go. Note that this has two meanings in one, since Jones successfully prosecuted Klansmen who bombed a church and killed four girls in the process. (The other meaning obviously refers to Roy Moore.)

    Anyway, election results tonight:

    Dems comfortably held the light blue 133rd state house seat around Bethlehem, PA.

    Dems lost the Massachusetts state senate "Worcester & Middlesex" seat (MA state lege seats have names instead of numbers), apparently because an indie candidate from the Dem candidate's hometown (specifically the longest-serving city councilor in said hometown) played major spoiler; this is supported by the Repub only winning about what Romney got in 2012). Republicans will now have 8/40 seats in the state senate.

    No results yet in the D vs D race in California's 51st assembly district but I think Wendy Carrillo has a lead early in the tallying.

    In Georgia, several D vs. D races seem to have produced progressive women as victors, including Nikema Williams, Bee Nguyen, and Jen Jordan. I think Nguyen ran against a fellow progressive, but Williams (endorsed by unions and the Sierra Club) beat an opponent endorsed by the FOP and the Chamber of Commerce, while Jordan won in a landslide against a fellow Dem who a few years ago said some really homophobic things online. (Like "homosexuality is a sin" homophobic. He apologized for it, and says that he's been working on reconciling what he felt his faith told him, with a more informed perspective, or something like that.)

    Most importantly with Jen Jordan's win in the 6th senate district, it officially cements the fact that Dems have broken the Republican supermajority in the state senate.

    Atlanta mayoralty is up in the air -- Dem Keisha Lance Bottoms has a few-hundred-vote lead over centrist/conservative independent Mary Norwood, pending the numbers getting properly checked and probably some absentee/provisional ballots (not sure if they do that).

    (Tangential amusement: Current Atlanta mayor Kasim Reed was elected by a similarly thin margin in 2009, so someone commented that "Atlanta is repeating 2009", to which someone else replied "I can't take Lil Jon being popular again", at which point someone else discovered that Lil Jon had actually retweeted someone else celebrating Bottoms's election victory: https://www.dailykos.com/comments/1721033/68576240#comment_68576240 )

    In Iowa, Dems fail to flip Cedar Rapids mayoralty (in second loss for Repub-turned-Dem city councilor Monica Vernon, who previously ran for Congress), but i hear a strong progressive won the district 5 seat in the city council, ousting a centrist/moderate-liberal incumbent.

  • Creature - Florida Dragon Turtle Human
    Also.



    I'm sorry; I burst out laughing at this picture.
  • Creature - Florida Dragon Turtle Human
    In more stupid funny: Pennsylvania state representative Daryl Metcalfe, a Republican from the 12th district of Pennsylvania, is not gay.

    http://www.pennlive.com/news/2017/12/pa_lawmaker_to_colleague_im_a.html
  • Creature - Florida Dragon Turtle Human
    less funny, more shocking:

    Maps of Atlanta mayoral election results: it's downright stunning how much race, affluence, and preference in this runoff election correlate.

    https://www.dailykos.com/comments/1720805/68578795 - correlation with affluence
    https://www.dailykos.com/comments/1720805/68579973 - correlation with race. someone ran the numbers and came up with a "98%" correlation (not sure if r or r^2)

    The links show compilations of tweets which are embedded on both pages. I could post the tweets separately bit it'd be messier.
  • edited 2017-12-08 03:35:36
    Creature - Florida Dragon Turtle Human


    So apparently asking someone to "become a surrogate" is the new right-wing way to say that you want to have sex with them? wut

    otherwise i think this takes the cake for 2017 strangest reason to resign
  • You know Justice Democrats? Well, Franks' challenger (Brianna Westbrook) is one of them, and I'm happy to see things get a lot easier for her.

    https://westbrook2018.com/
  • edited 2017-12-09 00:53:59
    Creature - Florida Dragon Turtle Human
    You know Justice Democrats? Well, Franks' challenger (Brianna Westbrook) is one of them, and I'm happy to see things get a lot easier for her.

    https://westbrook2018.com/

    I'm not familiar with Justice Democrats and I feel a little loath to get involved in an ideological fight in a primary, but...isn't Dr. Hiral Tipirneni already running in that district? I hadn't heard about Brianna Westbrook yet, and granted, I know very little about either candidate (found out about both today).

    Edit: Apparently they're not the only two: There's a third Dem named Judith McHale.
  • edited 2017-12-12 03:50:41
    Creature - Florida Dragon Turtle Human
    Four special elections tomorrow.

    By far the most notable one is for the Alabama U.S. Senate seat. At-least-twice-disgraced former state supreme court judge Roy Moore (R) faces former U.S. Attorney Doug Jones (D), whose main claims to fame are successfully prosecuting, in the late 1990s, the two then-surviving Klansmen who hadn't yet been prosecuted for their role in bombing a church and killing four black girls in 1963, and indicting the 1996 Atlanta Olympic Park bomber. Polls have basically predicted everything from a tie to a double-digit win in both directions, so basically no one has any good read on this race. Alabama is well-known for being very red (i.e. leaning heavily to the Republicans) in presidential races, but a lot of Republicans have expressed dissatisfaction with their candidate. Moore last won a competitive race against a Democrat by about 51%-48%, back in 2012 (a prior race in 2003? (I think) got him about 54%). Possible factors influencing the current election:
    • Alabama's expected Republican lean.
    • Moore's ideological extremism. He got kicked off the bench of the state supreme court twice -- once for refusing to remove a Ten Commandments statue, and then a second time for refusing to allow local judges to grant marriage licenses to same-sex couples following a U.S. Supreme Court decision legalizing same-sex marriage.
    • Moore's various scandals, including cheating his own church/charity of money, but most notably the allegations of sexual misconduct wherein he may have attempted to date a person who was 14-year-old girl while in Moore was in his 30s working as a prosecutor. While this may have been known around his hometown before this race (he did curiously underperform in his home county more than in the state as a whole, compared to Mitt Romney), this scandal only really broke onto the national spotlight about a month ago. Aside from one 14-year-old girl, women who were 16- and 17-year-olds came forward with similar stories, and locals around his hometown seem to have begun openly talking about how Moore got banned from the shopping mall due to a habit of trawling the mall for teenage girls. Outside of Alabama, Moore has been widely seen as a sex predator and pedophile as a result this information coming to light.
    • Republicans have been split on whether to support Moore, roughly splitting on their opinion of Pres. Donald Trump, who supports Moore, alongside the state party, the national party after some hand-wringing. Contrast Richard Shelby, the other senator from Alabama, who said he'd write-in a Republican candidate rather than vote for Moore, and other senators who have raised the possibility that they might try to expel him if he wins. Jeff Flake, a retiring Arizona senator, outright gave the Jones campaign a $100 donation. Jones has been running ads featuring Alabama Republican voters who say they cannot support Moore.
    • Midterm and special elections are generally low-turnout events, and Republicans are known for being better than Democrats at getting their voters out to vote. This is particularly the case with poor and minority voters. In Alabama, a large part of the Dem base is blacks, who tend to be poorer on average than whites.
    • A recent change/clarification in Alabama state law defines what types of felony convictions remove voting rights, and as a result, a number of convicts and ex-convicts have been able to re-register to vote.
    • The Jones campaign has in recent weeks been more active and better funded than the Moore campaign. Moore stopped making public appearances a week or so ago, while Jones has been able to air a number of advertisements on TV. Jones supporters suggest that he has a better "ground game", of volunteers knocking on doors and otherwise contacting other potential supporters to remind them to vote.
    • There are some rumours going around saying that the Jones campaign hasn't done enough to mobilize black voters.

    Alabama is also holding two special primary elections at the same time, one Dem primary in state senate district 26, which is a big chunk of Montgomery, and one Repub primary in state house district 4, which is areas southwest/west of Huntsville.

    Finally, there is a special (general) election in Iowa's state senate district 3, which is a heavily Republican district forming an arc around the eastern side of Sioux City. Past special elections in Iowa have seen Dem overperformances (compared to presidential results) that may allow the Dems to pick up this seat, so it is not a certain hold for the Republicans.
  • edited 2017-12-13 20:50:26
    Creature - Florida Dragon Turtle Human
    Also, I forgot, there was also a Republican primary in Oklahoma's senate district 27, which is an extremely Republican district spanning the Oklahoma panhandle and some other northwestern parts of the state.

    Anyway, here are the results. I'll save the big one for last.

    primary elections

    OK-SD27 (R): state rep. Casey Murdock (R) wins the primary; he goes on to face small business owner and military spouse Amber Jensen (D) in the general election on February 13, 2018.

    AL-SD26 (D): Montgomery city councilman David Burkette (D) and state rep. John Knight (D) were the top-two finishers in a primary election where no one got 50%, so they will face each other in a primary runoff on February 27, 2018. The winner of that runoff will face D.J. Johnson (R) on May 15, 2018, in this Montgomery-based district.

    AL-HD04 (R): businessman Tom Fredricks (R) and marketing rep. Parker Duncan Moore (R) were the top-two finishers, like above, and the runoff will also be on February 27. The winner of that runoff will face Juanita Allen Healy (D) on May 15 as well, in this northern Alabama district that partly encompasses Decatur, west of Huntsville.

    general elections

    IA-SD03: school superintendent Todd Wendt (D) overperformed both Obama and H. Clinton but still fell short in this district that I think is a rural arc surrounding Sioux City. He lost to state rep. Jim Carlin (R) by a 45%-55% margin.

    AL-Sen: Here's the big one.

    Attorney Doug Jones (D) has defeated former judge Roy Moore (R) for the U.S. Senate seat representing Alabama. Jones defeated Moore with a margin of about 49.9% to 48.4%, with 1.7% going to write-in candidates, of which there were five (two Republicans, one Libertarian, and two independents).

    The last time Alabama elected a Democrat to the Senate was 1992 (that was Richard Shelby, who switched party to R and is still in the Senate) and the state has not been represented by a Dem since 1997 (that was the late Howell Heflin, who didn't run for re-election and was succeeded by now-AG Jeff Sessions).

    The seat's next regular election is in 2020, so it is actually not something the Republicans can pick back up next year.

    Some useful information about the race:
    a bio on Doug Jones: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/us/doug-jones-alabama.html
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/how-doug-jones-won-alabama
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/for-many-alabama-voters-the-lesser-of-two-evils-is-still-roy-moore
  • Repeatedly during the Alabama election:

    RANDOM OBSERVER: You know, I'm not sure how Roy Moore could possibly make himself look any worse.
    ROY MOORE: Hold my beer, once more.

    Because on top of the sexual abuse stuff, he went on to say that the country was greatest when slavery was still around, and then in a twofer he goes on to remind everybody that he's no friend to LGBT people while simultaneously saying that Putin is right (in his stance on same-sex marriage, which is consistent with Moore's record but still pretty dumb given what a boogeyman Putin's been portrayed as over the last year*), and maybe some other stuff I'm forgetting.

    Now that that's done, though, here comes the net neutrality repeal. Yay...

    * To clarify, I'm not a fan of Vladimir Putin or anything, and I definitely wouldn't want to live in a country run by him. I simply don't believe that he's as big a threat as people make him out to be, because if you go by how #TheResistance describes him then you imagine he's this all-powerful puppet master who's controlling the destiny of the entire planet. I think that's an exaggeration, and the theories of him being the deciding factor in the presidential election are a real stretch in my opinion.
  • There is love everywhere, I already know
    Who are hashtag The Resistance and why is there a hashtag in front of their name.

    Anyways, the thing is like trolls on facebook probably didn't influence that many people (though I wouldn't know since I'm not on facebook and facebook is the new religion or whatever) into actually changing their mind. That thing where they genuinely organized a protest was weird, but like I'm pretty sure people have done worse over the internet.

    Putin's got so many of his own issues to deal with that he's screwing up* that I'm surprised this is the angle the liberal machine decided to run with (as opposed to whatever is hidden in those Deutche Bank accounts).
    here comes the net neutrality repeal. Yay

    For goodness sakes America I'm actually kind of mad the one good thing you did this year was not elect Roy Moore as opposed to defeating Ajit Pai.

    *IIRC annexing Crimea led to a seriously expensive water shortage
    *He's pulling his forces out of Syria at the most random point, and this whole tryst has probably really hurt him back home (the death of that Russian diplomat to Turkey, for one) whilst not really helping him out in terms of his relationship Assad.
    Putin is right (in his stance on same-sex marriage

    Does Putin get as far as same-sex [anything] for him to consider marriage a thing?
  • Creature - Florida Dragon Turtle Human
    Who are hashtag The Resistance and why is there a hashtag in front of their name.
    Sort of an unofficial and nonpartisan name (well, there is no official name anyway) for at least some progressives/moderates/liberals/etc. who oppose the Trump administration and the various things it's trying to shit on.
    Putin's got so many of his own issues to deal with that he's screwing up* that I'm surprised this is the angle the liberal machine decided to run with (as opposed to whatever is hidden in those Deutche Bank accounts).
    That's not "the angle the liberal machine decided to run with" because there basically is no "liberal machine". Not sure if you've heard the proverb that getting Democrats (and by extension, liberals and progressives) to agree on something is like "herding cats".

    There's basically a bunch of individual organizations with some overlaps between membership, as well as varying amounts of ideological disagreements.

    Amongst people I hang around, I largely don't see people claiming that Putin is anything more than (1) a douchebag leader of the "strongman" variety (a trait he shares with other leaders who have reputations for disregarding human rights, the rule of law, political dissent, and general decency; and naturally, they all hate these things), (2) leader of some efforts to interfere with the 2016 U.S. presidential election through misinformation, and (3) probably has pretty capable cyber-criminals among his allies. He's not generally regarded as a "mastermind" of sorts.

    The Republican Party had been fanning the flames of bigotry and intolerance for decades, long before Putin himself was a thing, and now our country is reaping the consequences of these actions.
  • Who are hashtag The Resistance and why is there a hashtag in front of their name.

    I've spent too much time on Twitter, I guess; usually when I talk about them it's on there, hence the hashtag.

    Anyhoo, they're people who hate Trump (good), who want to resist Trump (good), and generally speaking believe everything Hillary Clinton and her supporters have to say, including everything about Russia stealing the election in order to install Trump due to having "kompromat" on him (this is where they and people like me differ).

    That might be unfair. That might be a stereotype. But there are lots of people fitting that stereotype who put #TheResistance or #Resist in their tweets.

    People further left than that, who don't subscribe to the "Trump/GOP bad, Hillary/Democrats all good" view, have gotten into the habit of referring to people who just want to stop Trump without worrying about anything else as "#TheResistance".
    For goodness sakes America I'm actually kind of mad the one good thing you did this year was not elect Roy Moore as opposed to defeating Ajit Pai

    Yep.
  • Creature - Florida Dragon Turtle Human
    It's actually easier to defeat Roy Moore than Ajit Pai considering that you'd need to go through an impeachment process to remove Ajit Pai, while Moore wasn't in office yet.
  • It's actually easier to defeat Roy Moore than Ajit Pai considering that you'd need to go through an impeachment process to remove Ajit Pai, while Moore wasn't in office yet.

    True, and it's not like it was for lack of trying to stop Pai and the other two dicks who want to repeal net neutrality. People contacted the FCC, they contacted their members of congress, they protested, they did everything they could.

    A couple of years ago that worked with Tom Wheeler. This time it isn't; Wheeler caved to public pressure, but Pai seems to give zero fucks.
  • If life has taught me anything, it's that it's dangerous to get your hopes up. That said:





    And also:




    Maybe the damage can be undone?
  • There is love everywhere, I already know
    Maybe the damage can be undone?

    I think I'm going to wallow in my disappointment with this whole thing for a bit before getting back on my "Everything is terrible but also mostly kind of fine!" horse.

    I'm sorry to admit this but my only hope right now is really "We still don't take cues from America right? UK? EU? Someone?"
  • There is love everywhere, I already know
    >cause destabilization in the Middle East by naming Jerusalem the capital of Israel
    >accuse Iran of trying to cause destabilization in the Middle East with super-vague evidence

    Solid plan, guys but seriously though is every Republican presidency going to start with "We need more war we swear!"
    Also in the GOP tax plan are a series of taxes on university education.

    These include a new tax on graduate tuition waivers, a key way many post-graduates in the US are able to attend school, as well as plans to scrap tax deductions related to university student loans.These proposals would not only stifle the engine of the US' knowledge economy, but they would destroy a key means of upward mobility in the country.

    Why is America so obsessed with starting everybody off with a mountain of debt right out of school.
  • Creature - Florida Dragon Turtle Human
    I don't think they specifically want to but rather it's that their main goal above anything else is to cut corporate and top-bracket tax rates and anything else they do is incidental to getting that passed -- both figuring out who else they have to please, in what order, and then limiting that to only a certain amount of tax-cutting.

    They don't need to please college kids. Those people vote overwhelmingly Democratic anyway, so fuck them.

    Hell, they don't actually need to please middle-class voters that much either, that's why middle-class tax cuts are going to expire after several years, while corporate tax cuts will be permanent.
  • There is love everywhere, I already know
    that's why middle-class tax cuts are going to expire after several years

    This genuinely just seems mean for no reason (there's no way that'll cover the deficit caused by not taxing the people with almost all the money).
  • Creature - Florida Dragon Turtle Human
    They are using that to get around budget accounting. The tax cuts, if temporary, don't "count" as a loss of revenue.
  • Why is America so obsessed with starting everybody off with a mountain of debt right out of school.

    ikr, I'm always surprised by the costs of higher education there. Also it can't be motivating knowing that by the time you graduate you'll still have much to pay off, without the certainty that you'll be using your degree.

    I've sometimes thought that maybe the time is ripe for non-university certifications.
  • edited 2017-12-16 21:07:05
    that's why middle-class tax cuts are going to expire after several years

    This genuinely just seems mean for no reason (there's no way that'll cover the deficit caused by not taxing the people with almost all the money).

    The 2017 Democratic party is a reflection of their biggest donors.

    Which are giant corporations. Which aren't mean for no reason...they're mean because they really, really, really want to make as much money as they possibly can, and this overrides whatever sense of basic human decency they might have once had.

    ETA: I'm not saying that this is uniquely the Democrats' fault, mind you. I know that this came up because the GOP tax plan was brought up, and I know that there are plenty of Democrats opposing that. But if any Democrats are okay with things like letting middle-class tax cuts expire while corporate tax cuts stay in effect, that's why.
    Why is America so obsessed with starting everybody off with a mountain of debt right out of school.

    ikr, I'm always surprised by the costs of higher education there. Also it can't be motivating knowing that by the time you graduate you'll still have much to pay off, without the certainty that you'll be using your degree.

    I've sometimes thought that maybe the time is ripe for non-university certifications.

    It is SO ridiculous to me how the government prioritizes military spending above pretty much everything. Recently they added, what, 80 billion dollars to the military budget? How many people's health care could that increase alone pay for? How many people's college education? How much in the way of repairs to the country's infrastructure?

    Thinking about that just makes me more pissed off when I think about how those things were described as "pie in the sky" pipe dreams last year, and continue to be described that way today by certain parties.
  • Creature - Florida Dragon Turtle Human
    that's why middle-class tax cuts are going to expire after several years

    This genuinely just seems mean for no reason (there's no way that'll cover the deficit caused by not taxing the people with almost all the money).

    The 2017 Democratic party is a reflection of their biggest donors.

    Which are giant corporations. Which aren't mean for no reason...they're mean because they really, really, really want to make as much money as they possibly can, and this overrides whatever sense of basic human decency they might have once had.

    ETA: I'm not saying that this is uniquely the Democrats' fault, mind you. I know that this came up because the GOP tax plan was brought up, and I know that there are plenty of Democrats opposing that. But if any Democrats are okay with things like letting middle-class tax cuts expire while corporate tax cuts stay in effect, that's why.
    Wait, how is this criticism of the Democrats relevant here? This is the Republicans' tax bill that we're talking about, and Democrats are pretty much completely unified in their opposition.

    Not to mention that the Dems have actually become arguably more progressive, in terms of willingness to propose and discuss progressive policy ideas, since the 2016 election.
  • edited 2017-12-16 21:55:10

    ETA: I'm not saying that this is uniquely the Democrats' fault, mind you. I know that this came up because the GOP tax plan was brought up, and I know that there are plenty of Democrats opposing that. But if any Democrats are okay with things like letting middle-class tax cuts expire while corporate tax cuts stay in effect, that's why.

    I hope you are aware of how pointless your reply looks when you have to amend it with "this would be relevant if there are [X] who [Y]".
  • edited 2017-12-16 22:59:53
    You're right, I sort of replied before really reading, then took a closer look, then edited, and it would've been best if I'd said nothing at all looking back...

    It could be that I just kind of take it as a given that Republicans are going to be terrible on this stuff, whereas Dems are supposed to be better than they are (clarification: I don't mean that as "better than Republicans", which they do qualify as, I mean that as "Democrats are supposed to be better than Democrats currently are") and the fact that they still have a long way to go upsets me more than Republicans just being Republicans. To the point where my knee-jerk reaction when I hear about Congress doing something wrong is to think "Goddamn it, Dems" and maybe say something to that effect before really looking at the details.

    Credit where it's due: I'm not aware of any Dems who are in favour of the net neutrality repeal and there are plenty who are against the repeal. And some surprising people have supported the Medicare For All bill (Cory Booker, for one, is very surprising to me). And yes, opposition to the GOP tax bill. Some of them have opposed aiding the Saudis in their decimation of Yemen.

    Blame where it's due: there are still people high up in the party who are against raising the minimum wage, who are only content with keeping Obamacare instead of trying for something better, and if you want to talk about taxes then Obama chose to sign a bill extending the Bush tax cuts, so they aren't always great on that either.
  • Creature - Florida Dragon Turtle Human
    [humor] [programming/scripting/web design] [pettiness]

  • Creature - Florida Dragon Turtle Human
    A more heartening story to start the new year.

    "The Vandal and the Mosque: A New Chapter of Forgiveness in Arkansas"
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/reader-center/mosque-vandal-arkansas.html?_r=0
  • edited 2018-01-04 15:47:33
    There is love everywhere, I already know
    I wonder if Gossip Girl: Trump White House Edition is any worth reading.

    I know that the Murdoch love is a classic Michael Wolff move but the other bits sound like they could make it a real story of the girl who wasn't the prettiest who made it when she didn't intend to who just happened to be Donald Trump.

    Not that you should take what Michael Wolff says seriously, really. To be honest, he might think he's a Dan Humprey, but he's not.
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