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Comments
Congrats on voting in your first election!
My first election was in 2004, right after my 18th birthday. Being born on Halloween really makes voting age a memorable thing.
At the time I voted absentee in Connecticut (due to being in another state in college).
In 2008, I backed Obama over Clinton in the primary and voted Obama in the general, also in Connecticut.
In 2012, I voted for Obama in the general. I moved to Virginia in August of that year so I voted in Virginia.
In 2016, I was undecided in the presidential primary but ended up voting for Sanders, in Virginia. I moved from Virginia to Florida during the summer, so now I'm voting in Florida, and I'll be voting for Clinton.
And Murphy, and the rest of the Democratic candidates, of course.
If I were living in the late 1800s, I would probably hate the Democrats and be voting straight-ticket Republican. Especially for the liberal/"radical" Republicans. But with some possible exceptions for populist Democrats. And if I lived in the early 1900s I would probably have been bouncing around the populist Democrats and the progressive Republicans.
From what I remember of U.S. History, I think I would have supported Horace Greeley, William Jennings Bryan, and Theodore Roosevelt. Possibly also Samuel J. Tilden?
I'll be voting Clinton too, and will vote straight blue the whole way. So will most of my family because I used Trump as a Cudgel.
If I lived in the 1900s, I'd have voted for Teddy Roosevelt, FDR, and Henry Wallace. Mostly the progressives and socialists.
Also, Serocco, vote no on Amendment 1
There are two explanations for this.
1. Trump is lying.
2. For Trump, it was Tuesday.
(N.B.: Neither of them is "they didn't actually do this".)
MN-08: SurveyUSA, for KSTP (an ABC affiliate), Trump 47-35.
* Stewart Mills (R): 45
* Rick Nolan (D, incumbent): 41
compare, a few days ago: Clarity Campaign Labs, for House Majority PAC (D), Trump 38-37:
* Rick Nolan (D, incumbent): 49
* Stewart Mills (R): 41
This is an Obama 2015 52-46 district, but the district's relatively lower median income and proportion of college graduates present a notable danger of it moving toward Trump.
VA-10: a little old, but I found the poll where Bennett is leading Comstock. This is a highly-educated and very wealthy Romney 50-48 district, in the Northern Virginia area.
From about a week ago, Expedition Strategies, for LuAnn Bennett (D), no presidential toplines:
* LuAnn Bennett (D): 48
* Barbara Comstock (R): 44
Comstock has a reputation as a pretty good campaigner, but these circumstances will certainly challenge her skills.
UT-04: in-house DCCC poll. This is Utah's least red district, where notably poor campaigner Mia Love is facing a rematch against Doug Owens, best known for being the son of a popular former governor. She won 51-46 in 2014.
* Mia Love (R, incumbent): 49
* Doug Owens (D): 41
IN-09: Garin-Hart-Young, for Shelli Yoder (D):
* Trey Hollingsworth (R): 43
* Shelli Yoder (D): 43
This is a southern Indiana seat around Bloomington; Romney won it 57-41. Incumbent Todd Young is running in IN-Sen. Yoder is a Monroe County Councilor who represents a significantly bluer council district, and is a former Miss Indiana. Hollingsworth is a businessman who recently moved to the area from Tennessee.
FL-13: St. Pete Polls, for Florida Politics:
* Charlie Crist (D): 48
* David Jolly (R, incumbent): 45
Crist is a former Republican governor who became an independent then a Democrat, and he lives in southern St. Petersburg, which was originally excluded from this district until it got redrawn by the Florida Supreme Court. (Living in a district is actually not a requirement for representing it, technically.) Jolly has a not-particularly-good relationship with GOP leadership after helping 60 Minutes do an exposé into how much fundraising for the party sucks. The reconfigured seat is a lot bluer and Jolly, who previously tried to bail by running for FL-Sen (back when Marco Rubio still hated his current job), dropped back down to try to hold it.
University of New Hampshire has released polls of various races. They have a reputation for having numbers that are a little wild. The presidential toplines for these polls is Clinton 49-34.
NH-Sen:
* Maggie Hassan (D): 48
* Kelly Ayotte (R, incumbent): 39
NH-Gov:
* Colin Van Ostern (D): 44
* Chris Sununu (R): 38
NH-01:
* Carol Shea-Porter (D): 43
* Frank Guinta (R, incumbent): 29
* Shawn O'Connor (I, formerly D): 10
NH-02:
* Annie Kuster (D, incumbent): 51
* Jim Lawrence (R): 23
FL-Sen: YouGov, Clinton 46-43:
* Marco Rubio (R, incumbent): 44
* Patrick Murphy (D): 42
MO-Gov: Remington Research (R) for the Missouri Scout:
* Chris Koster (D): 48
* Eric Greitens (R): 39
Two NC polls from PPP, both Clinton 47-44.
NC-Sen:
* Richard Burr (R, incumbent): 42
* Deborah Ross (D): 41
NC-Gov:
* Roy Cooper (D): 46
* Pat McCrory (R, incumbent): 44
Similarly, two NC polls from Monmouth, both Clinton 47-46.
NC-Sen:
* Richard Burr (R, incumbent): 49
* Deborah Ross (D): 43
NC-Gov:
* Pat McCrory (R, incumbent): 48
* Roy Cooper (D): 47
* Carol Shea-Porter (D): 41
* Frank Guinta (R, incumbent): 37
* Rob Lombardo (L): 9
* other: 3
Shawn O'Conner, former Dem primary challenger and now independent, was not included.
CA-31: Remington Research for Paul Chabot (R):
* Pete Aguilar (D, incumbent): 45
* Paul Chabot (R): 42
This seat is in the Redlans area and Obama 2012 won it 57-40. Aguilar won in 2014 51-49. It is located in the Los Angeles media market.
VT-Gov: little-known pollster Braun Research, for WCAX:
* Phil Scott (R): 47
* Sue Minter (D): 40
Scott is the lieutenant governor of VT and Minter is the transportation secretary.
FL-07: Cherry Communications for John Mica (R):
* John Mica (R, incumbent): 47
* Stephanie Murphy (D): 42
This may be in response to Dem poll releases showing Murphy up narrowly.
NJ-07: a central NJ seat, Romney 53-46. Located in the NYC media market. Public Policy Polling, for Peter Jacob (D), Clinton 45-44:
* Peter Jacob (D): 45
* Leonard Lance (R, incumbent): 45
UT-04: Dan Jones & Associates, for Utah Policy:
* Mia Love (R, incumbent): 51
* Doug Owens (D): 38
Oddly, the House Majority PAC (D) just started advertising here.
MT-Gov:
* Steve Bullock (D, incumbent): 44
* Greg Gianforte (R): 32
MT-AL:
* Ryan Zinke (R, incumbent): 50
* Denise Juneau (D): 31
Monmouth polls NH, Clinton 46-42:
NH-Sen:
* Kelly Ayotte (R, incumbent): 46
* Maggie Hassan (D): 46
NH-Gov:
* Colin Van Ostern (D): 48
* Chris Sununu (R): 43
LA-Sen: Southern Media & Opinion Research:
* John Kennedy (R): 22
* Foster Campbell (D): 16
* Charles Boustany (R): 14
* Caroline Fayard (D): 12
* John Fleming (R): 9
Jungle primary will be followed by runoff in December.
NY-19: Public Policy Polling for End Citizens United (supporting Zephyr Teachout (D)), POTUS tie 46-46:
* Zephyr Teachout (D): 44
* John Faso (R): 41
NE-02: North Star Opinion Research for Congressional Leadership Fund (R), Trump 44-40:
* Don Bacon (R): 48
* Brad Ashford (D, incumbent): 44
FL-Sen: three new polls:
SurveyUSA, Clinton 48-45:
* Marco Rubio (R, incumbent): 45
* Patrick Murphy (D): 41
Selzer & Company, Trump 45-43
* Marco Rubio (R, incumbent): 51
* Patrick Murphy (D): 41
Florida Atlantic University, Clinton 46-43:
* Marco Rubio (R, incumbent): 46
* Patrick Murphy (D): 42
Good lord, America.
Don't go down the deep end with the conspiracy theorists.
Republicans are indicating that they will block any and every Supreme Court nominee under President Clinton.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/10/27/the-fcc-just-passed-sweeping-new-rules-to-protect-your-online-privacy/?utm_campaign=pubexchange&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=huffingtonpost.com
Latest ad spending stats in House races.
wouldn't this be the DSCC?
Wait, @bee, Clinton is trailing Trump now in the swing states?