General politics thread (was: General U.S. politics thread)

glennmagusharvey

Actually I thought the sucking sound is businesses leaving North Carolina over the bathroom bill.

glennmagusharvey

Serocco

No, they actually graffitied something along the lines of "GET OUT NAZI" to the GOP HQ in NC.

Serocco

John McCain "promises" that the Republicans will block Garland and Clinton's nominees, even after the election. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/john-mccain-hillary-clinton-supreme-court_us_58050653e4b0162c043d4c9a?section=&

Several progressive economists have endorsed Clinton as well. Including Bernie supporter Robert Reich.

Serocco

Also in the leaked emails, Hillary Clinton said "the Saudis have exported more extreme ideology than any other place on Earth over the course of the last thirty years."

Finally, someone in power says it.

glennmagusharvey

http://www.desmogblog.com/2016/10/11/ken-bone-st-louis-presidential-town-hall-coal-company-climate-regulations

More information on the suddenly-famous Ken Bone.

Meanwhile, an international agreement has been reached on phasing out HFCs.  http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/15/world/africa/kigali-deal-hfc-air-conditioners.html

Serocco

Also, if the Democrats win the Senate, Bernie Sanders can chair the Budget Committee and the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee.

That means he would have jurisdiction over taxes, the social programs, student loans, the budget plan, OSHA, the Congressional Budget Office, the minimum wage, public health... yeah, that's more than enough of a reason to vote downballot.

glennmagusharvey

[22:43:48] they should give the presidential debate moderator an airhorn
[22:43:54] and a chiptune music player
[22:44:11] the airhorn shall be automatically sounded when any candidate goes over time
[22:44:56] the chiptune music player will loudly play this tune, sped up to about 140%, whenever a candidate interrupts the other one's time:

Serocco

And since he has yet to get an eelction prediction wrong, Cenk Uygur has called it... for Hillary Clinton.

Roger Ailes has now effectively dropped the Trump campaign. He found Trump impossible to work with. It's over.

glennmagusharvey

#EvenEvilHasStandards

Zennistrad

Even Donald Trump seems to know he won't win and seems to be more concerned with inciting a revolt when he does lose.

lrdgck

Meanwhile, in the meme world Pepe reclamation struggle continues:

“As the creator of Pepe, I condemn the illegal and repulsive
appropriations of the character by racist and fringe groups. The true
nature of Pepe, as featured in my comic book, ‘Boys Club,’ celebrates
peace, togetherness and fun. I aim to reclaim the rascally frog from the
forces of hate and ask that you join me in making millions of new,
joyful Pepe memes that share the light hearted spirit of the original
chilled-out champion.”

Earthlight_Ray

Pepe has gone through a lot of phases. Feels good man -> feels bad man/sad frog -> rare pepes (this is about where /r9k/ was on the rise and got a hold of the character) -> tendies stories (manchild pepe) -> pee pee poo poo (this is where pepe got increasingly violent and obscene) -> alt-right racist pepe (likely started on /pol/ but of course is now sweeping the world), so here we are. What a bizarre world this is.

KilgoreTrout

Serocco3 wrote: »

Yes I am. I tried to make it slightly better, but someone keeps fighting me over it.

I was looking at RationalWiki earlier and saw that a user named Mona had either been banned or left or something else. She made a lot of good edits and shares a lot of my views, but she got fought tooth and nail on certain things (Israel being one). Finally she just gave up.

The site's got some good articles (good at the moment, anyway; no idea what they'll look like a year or two from now), but if they want to shut down voices like yours and hers then they don't represent the actual left, no matter how much they believe they do.

EDIT TO ADD: Speaking of her views: I'm following her on Twitter, and Mona's not only no fan of Hillary, but she's worried that Clinton might escalate things with Russia to the point where we're looking at either another Cold War or actual, full-out war. I don't think that Clinton would go that far against a power as significant as Russia, personally, but interested in people's thoughts about whether we might see further escalation with Russia.

KilgoreTrout

Oh yeah, I also have to comment on this Trump quote. When I saw the first tweet about it I figured "Oh, this is just a joke because of what he said last night about accepting the election results." But no, amazingly, this was not made up, this is something which actually came out of his mouth:

"I would like to promise and pledge to all of my voters and supporters and to all of the people of the United States that I will totally accept the results of this great and historic presidential election, if I win."

If he wins.

How is it possible that a real person--and not a fictional character living in a crazy satire--is saying this?

If he were actually trying to lose I don't think he could be doing any worse.

Stormtroper

Unless something has changed since the times I was a RatWikian, it is by a long shot the most 'free speechy' website I've seen on my stance in the internet, where only unfunny vandalism can get you a serious ban (>= 314 seconds), rarely for long, and never permanently, not even TK (long story). -Mona- blanked part of a page after over two months of inactivity and was blocked for 314159 seconds for it (although another user suggests it might have been an accident). The thing about leaving is more likely, the place does get too argumentative quite often.

Serocco

Here is TYT reporting on Roger Ailes' leaving Donald Trump.

glennmagusharvey

Recent non-POTUS polls: all or mostly taken from Daily Kos Elections since I'm tired of wading through their numerous diaries spamming about the presidential race in order to find the Live Digest.

From today's digest so far: http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/21/1582908/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-10-21

LA-Sen: David Vitter (R, incumbent) is retiring.  Jungle primary.  Mason-Dixon, for Fox 8 and Raycom Media:
* State Treasurer John Kennedy (R): 24
* Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell (D): 19
* Attorney Caroline Fayard (D): 12
* Rep. Charles Boustany (R): 11
* Rep. John Fleming (R): 10
* Ex-Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke (R): 5
* 2014 Senate candidate Rob Maness (R): 3
Top two finishers go onto December runoff.

From yesterday's digest:
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/20/1582907/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-10-20

HI-Honolulu Mayor: officially non-partisan race.  Candidates mainly divided on a local rail system.  Merriman River Group, for Civil Beat:
* Kirk Caldwell (D, incumbent): 48
* ex-Rep. Charles Djou (R): 41

AZ-Maricopa County Sheriff: the infamous immigrant-hating incumbent Joe Arpaio appears to be in some trouble -- both legally (story in the link) and electorally.  Behavior Research Institute, for "several local Arizona media outlets":
* Phoenix police sergeant Paul Penzone (D): 46
* Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R, incumbent): 31
Earlier poll, by Sherpa Public Affairs (R):
* Phoenix police sergeant Paul Penzone (D): 51
* Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R, incumbent): 41
Arpaio still has a big funding advantage though.

CA-10: Anzalone Liszt Grove for Michael Eggman:
* Michael Eggman (D): 47
* Rep. Jeff Denham (R, incumbent): 42
(ALG's polling memo says there's a July poll showing a 47-41 lead for Denham.)
"A few days ago", by Clarity Campaign Labs for House Majority PAC (D):
* Michael Eggman (D): 46
* Rep. Jeff Denham (R, incumbent): 45

NV-04: by GBA Strategies, for DCCC:
* Ruben Kihuen (D): 40
* Rep. Crescent Hardy (R, incumbent): 38

CA-25: by Tulchin Research, for DCCC:
* Rep. Steve Knight (R, incumbent): 46
* Bryan Caforio (D): 44

IA-01: by GBA Strategies, for DCCC:
* Monica Vernon (D): 48
* Rep. Rod Blum (R, incumbent): 47
Last week, by Normington Petts for House Majority PAC (D):
* Rep. Rod Blum (R, incumbent): 45
* Monica Vernon (D): 44

VA-05: incumbent Robert Hurt (R) is retiring in this large central/southern Virginia district.
Meeting Street Research for Tom Garrett (R):
* Tom Garrett (R): 50
* Jane Dittmar (D): 39
Anzalone Liszt Grove for Jane Dittmar (D):
* Tom Garrett (R): 47
* Jane Dittmar (D): 41

VA-10: district in northern part of northern Virginia.  Northwestern exurbs of Washington, DC, basically.  Relatively wealthy, and historically Republican, but gradually trending toward the Democrats.
Not on DKE.  A campaign e-mail from LuAnn Bennett (D) claims that she has a slight edge in polling over incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock (R), but numbers are not cited.

There are also scattered numbers about fundraising and more, all over DKE.  I don't feel like posting them right now.

glennmagusharvey

More polling mentioned on DKC:

GA-Sen: two recent polls.
by Lucid Poll, N=807:
* Sen. Johnny Isakson (R, incumbent): 49
* Jim Barksdale (D): 43
by ABT SRBI for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, N=839:
* Sen. Johnny Isakson (R, incumbent): 47
* Jim Barksdale (D): 32
* Allen Buckley (L): 11
If no one gets 50% of the vote, it goes to a January 10, 2017 runoff election.  Given the odd timing of the runoff, the Republican is typically favored (see for example the difference between the general election and runoff election results between Jim Martin (D) and incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) in 2008).

Y'know I might as well say, all non-presidential polls I talk about are gonna be things I found out about from DKC unless otherwise specified.

glennmagusharvey

I should probably start including Clinton/Trump numbers when the polls include them, just for the sake of better ability to consider how much salt to take with each poll.

Anyway, source again is http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/21/1582908/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-10-21 .

NV-03: incumbent Joe Heck (R) is running for Senate.
Global Strategy Group for Jacky Rosen (D):
* Jacky Rosen (D): 44
* Danny Tarkinian (R): 37
Tarrance Group for the NRCC, Trump 44-40:
* Danny Tarkinian (R): 38
* Jacky Rosen (D): 33
* other candidates: 10
compare earlier this month, Tarrance Group for the NRCC:
* Danny Tarkinian (R): 42
* Jacky Rosen (D): 37

AZ-01: incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick (D) is running for Senate.
Global Strategy Group for the DCCC, Clinton 47-42:
* Tom O'Halleran (D): 46
* Paul Babeu (R): 36
compare last month, Global Strategy Group for the DCCC:
* Tom O'Halleran (D): 45
* Paul Babeu (R): 38
compare "a few weeks ago", Moore Information for Paul Babeu (R):
* Tom O'Halleran (D): 39
* Paul Babeu (R): 36

NY-24: by Siena, Clinton 44-34:
* John Katko (R, incumbent): 54
* Colleen Deacon (D): 31

GA-Sen: by Opinion Savvy, Trump 50-46:
* Johnny Isakson (R, incumbent): 51
* Jim Barksdale: 42

FL-Sen: by Lucid, Clinton 45-39:
* Marco Rubio (R, incumbent): 45
* Patrick Murphy (D): 44
by Opinion Savvy, Clinton 49-45:
* Patrick Murphy (D): 46
* Marco Rubio (R, incumbent): 46
by Cherry Communications (R) for Florida Chamber of Commerce:
* Marco Rubio (R, incumbent): 51
* Patrick Murphy (D): 37

NC-Sen: by Lucid, Clinton 42-41:
* Richard Burr (R, incumbent): 46
* Deborah Ross (D): 44

NC-Gov: by Lucid, Clinton 42-41:
* Roy Cooper (D): 50
* Pat McCrory (R, incumbent): 43

IN-Gov: by Ball State, Trump 43-37:
* John Gregg (D): 48
* Eric Holcomb (R): 43

glennmagusharvey

Apparently that Ball State polling also hit up IN-Sen, according to electoral-vote.com:
* Evan Bayh (D): 49
* Todd Young (R): 43
Incumbent Dan Coats (R) is retiring (for the second time).

UT-Sen: electoral-vote.com also has a poll apparently, from the somewhat untrustworthy Rasmussen, but the result is probably less in question than why Rasmussen even bothered to poll UT-Sen:
* Misty Snow (D): 25
* Mike Lee (R, incumbent): 57

glennmagusharvey

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/22/1585733/-Memo-to-Curt-Schilling-Here-s-why-Jewish-Americans-overwhelmingly-vote-for-Democrats

A little (well, not so little) essay about the (literally) religious reasons why American Jews don't, by and large, vote Republican.

TL;DR: Evangelical Christians and Orthodox Jews are the nuts who are overwhelmingly obsessed with being "strong on Israel" and some related religious and eschatological reasons.  Everyone else, including about 90% of American Jews, are less crazy about that stuff.

Serocco

All those polls indicate the beginning of a wave election unless you're in a deep red state. Swing states and red controlled blue states are likelier to flip to the Democrats lately.



Even Murphy has caught up to Rubio by now.

KilgoreTrout

In 2004, I watched the Red Sox win the World Series. Even though they'd helped to kill the Blue Jays' playoff hopes year after year, I felt good about their victory, because they were underdogs who had gone decades without making it. Curt Schilling was a key part of that.

Shortly afterwards, since there was also an election going on, I learned that Schilling was...shilling....for George W. Bush and was really right-wing. That made me feel significantly less happy about things.

glennmagusharvey

Didn't he also leave a bankrupt videogame company in the hands of the Rhode Island government?

Anyway, new non-POTUS poll, according to electoral-vote.com:
NH-Sen: by University of New Hampshire, whose polling results are sometimes a bit wild, so take these with a grain of salt just in case.
* Maggie Hassan (D): 48
* Kelly Ayotte (R, incumbent): 39

Bee

Early voting is pointing to a Democrat sweep of Nevada, which was one of the tougher battleground states.  Granted, early voting swings heavily Democrat, but it's a relief to see turnout is strong.

Remember, Hillary came into this election with enough safe states that she only needed to pull like one battleground.

Serocco

Oh yeah, I first learned of Schilling for his sports heroics for the Red Sox. Now I know him as the Storm Trumper who wants to heat Elizabeth Warren. He can fuck right off.


Speaking of elections, Hillary is responding to pressure from the Warren wing again. This time, she sent Tim Kaine to express displeasure at the AT&T merger with Time Warner. http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_580cc751e4b02444efa3e399

Blueeyedrat

And that's my absentee ballot sent. Only voted for President and Congress (and Governor/L. Gov./Sec. of State); didn't feel right casting a vote on local initiatives that I have no stake in because I no longer live in the state.

Serocco

Where are you guys from state wise?



I'm in Florida and I'll vote on Election Day. This is actually my first presidential election =_=

Bee

Oregon.  We figured out that mail-in voting was a good thing, so it's hella easy.