General politics thread (was: General U.S. politics thread)

KilgoreTrout

Whatever applies to Hackensack, NJ I guess. I'm gonna wait until I get the ballot and google the names for some quick research.

Bee

I mean I'd go third party if the GOP picked literally anyone but Trump.

But given that they picked someone distressingly likely to start WW3, and that he's actually worse than the only other one I can think of who would have been likely to do that (Barry "Let's Escalate The Cold War" Goldwater), he is probably the worst candidate we've ever had, ever, and keeping him out of office is more important than flaunting a moral high horse.  Plus at this point Hillary comes with a bunch of staff half-vetted by Warren, which is at least not a total loss.

Of course I already live in a state that'd vote for a block of cheese if it was blue, so it's not like my vote matters all that much.

Hillary's lost enough in the polls that she's losing both Florida and Ohio, and leading overall by one very close state.  This is not the time to be sanctimonious and let someone as transparently deranged as Trump into office.

glennmagusharvey

KilgoreTrout wrote: »

Whatever applies to Hackensack, NJ I guess. I'm gonna wait until I get the ballot and google the names for some quick research.

You do absentee voting?

Bee wrote: »

Of course I already live in a state that'd vote for a
block of cheese if it was blue, so it's not like my vote matters all
that much.

And what are your downballot races, too?  I think I might have asked you before but I forget.

Bee

All of our legislators, state and national, are about as safe as it gets.  We're not exactly gerrymandered, but eastern Oregon is solid red and everything else is solid blue.  Wyden is up for challenge, but he's one of the most beloved senators we've ever had despite voting for FTA.  The only one that might cause any waves is the special election for governor, but if Kitzhaber can landslide a fourth term while being investigated for charges that got him to resign, I'm reasonably sure Kate Brown won't have any trouble -- especially since she's done some very concrete good in office already.

KilgoreTrout

glennmagusharvey wrote: »

KilgoreTrout wrote: »

Whatever applies to Hackensack, NJ I guess. I'm gonna wait until I get the ballot and google the names for some quick research.

You do absentee voting?

Yeah, I'm in Canuckistan (as I've seen it called and have decided I'll call it for at least one post); born here, but both parents are American, and Hackensack was the last place they lived before a job transfer brought my father up here, with my mother going along because she figured she'd be able to find work in the same field pretty easily. (And did.)

It's crossed my mind that I might be seeing things differently if that weren't the case, if I were actually living inside the borders of the country having the election and the domestic policies of the candidates affected me more.

glennmagusharvey

Well at least you're bothering to absentee vote, and that itself is commendable.

Blueeyedrat

I'm voting absentee as well, now that I'm old enough for it. Last US address was in Washington state, so that's what I have to work with— federal is a given, but I'm torn about voting in state/local elections since I don't actually live within that constituency.

I did end up filling out the entire ballot for the state primary a month or two back. There was enough information provided to find a candidate of "yeah, I can work with that" for pretty much all of the options. (And to filter out any major red flags, like one guy whose information included a blurb about getting rid of "mercury vaccines" and fluoridated water, or another who went out of his way to describe his lack of prior government experience as "not being corrupted by The System" or something like that.)

glennmagusharvey

Ballotpedia might help with that.  At least you should be able to figure out names of candidates, which you can then search the web for news articles about.

Another handy tool for getting a basic overview of local political context is this:
Daily Kos Elections' interactive maps of presidential election results by legislative districts

That'll let you know how strongly your districts lean which way, and who represents them.

IIRC Washington State actually has a closely-divided state senate, as well as a renegade Democrat siding with the Republicans.

Serocco

For Florida, we get every state House and state Senate seats up for grabs this election. The Senate usually goes for half (20 out of 40), but because of anti gerrymandering, all 40 seats were affected and all 40 seats are up for grabs. I think my state Senator is Oscar Braynon, because he's in Miami
Gardens (where I live), the largest black-majority city in the state (and I'm Latino).

My Congressional district (meaning House Seat) is the 24th in Florida, which is the most heavily Democratic district in the entire Southeastern United States. My representative is African American Democrat Frederica Wilson, whom I voted for in the primary (which means she basically won her election). Wilson was a friend to Trayvon Martin's family, who are her constituents. She was not happy about what happened there, as you can probably tell.

The two races everyone cares about are Trump vs Clinton and Rubio vs Murphy (who just recently said he'd fight for the public option, so he automatically gets my vote just from that). Rubio is steadily losing some ground, even though he's still ahead (and only by low single digits).

Serocco

To expand on my earlier post just above, here is an interesting Florida race: between Republican Miguel Diaz de la Portilla and Jose Javier Rodriguez. Anybody who lives in Miami-Dade should take note here. http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article100974017.html

DLP is a "fiscal conservative" who single handedly killed a bill that would've allowed students to carry guns on campus. JJR is an opponent of for-profit colleges and Florida energy monopolies. DLP supports Everglades restoration and Miami's apparently high quality criminal mental health program (which he wants statewide). JJR is a union ally and a particular friend to the teachers union in Miami.

There's a lot of overlap between the two, so what's the main difference? DLP is a lobbyist for a massive charter school monopoly and for Florida energy utilities. JJR is not. So if anyone has a chance to vote in this race, I recommend JJR, because that's one more progressive and one less Republican (even a liberal like DLP).

glennmagusharvey

The "fiscal conservative" label makes me skeptical of DLP's liberal credentials.  I'd want to ask JJR about his commitment to Everglades restoration, but I do like his being a union ally and I'm skeptical of the charter school as a proper long-term solution to education issues as opposed to just being a place for rich people to send their kids while poor people get stuck in increasingly dire schools that have decreasingly little funding.

Also, for reference for other readers, Miguel Diaz de la Portilla (i.e. "DLP") is an incumbent Republican state senator in the 37th district.  Jose Javier Rodriguez ("JJR") is currently a Democratic member of the state house, in the 112th district, and is running to challenge DLP this year.

glennmagusharvey

Meanwhile

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/20/upshot/the-error-the-polling-world-rarely-talks-about.html

Something to keep in mind when reading polls: the fact that everything does indeed have a fudge factor -- but it's not a completely free fudge factor either since professionals' and entire organizations' reputations ride on it.  And well-meaning people can and do model things differently.

Serocco3

Jose Javier Rodriguez (JJR), early 2016, was the only Florida Democrat who Co sponsored the Republican-initiated bill which proposes $100 million annually to focus on Everglades Restoration. The other Democrats thought it didnt go far enough.



http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article53755880.html#storylink=cpy

Serocco3

Sam Seder vs Jimmy Dore on the Majority Report.



Their topic is the 2016 election and whether Trump is better for the left.

BassFishing

Does anyone here in a swing state do vote-trading for ideological reasons? 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vote_trading#United_States_presidential_elections

glennmagusharvey

I don't know anyone who does that but I do know someone who eats at Chick-fil-A and says he makes up for it by voting Democrat.

Serocco3

Deborah Ross and Roy Cooper are leading their opponents in the Senate and North Carolina governorship races



http://m.dailykos.com/stories/1573070

Serocco3

State chambers may be the most affected by Trump.



http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_57e59d50e4b0e28b2b541d62

glennmagusharvey

i think what i just watched put the "bait" in "debate"



the amazing times though were when there was no bait and he was still biting

Earthlight_Ray

Who won? Who's next? (pepe pepe pepe)

glennmagusharvey

trump was sort of a horrid shitshow, and i haven't laughed like that at a serious event in a while



by this i mean it's one of those things that i'm at most supposed to have a chuckle



he nust basically spent his time...i don't really know how best to say it other than "arguing at things" like some angry, opinionated crazy person who could barely shut up

glennmagusharvey

and frankly speaking that's because he IS the personification of exactly that

glennmagusharvey

clinton was a little boring -- she could have come up with more zingers; that would have been more fun



is that the chaos in me talking? oops

Bee

Honestly the fact that some news outlets are even trying to argue that this was anything but Trump getting crushed is an embarrassment.

Bee

On a lighter note, the NPR transcript I was reading was speech-to-text.  It had predictable results.

http://imgur.com/gallery/8wVHZ

Serocco

“Donald was one of the people who rooted for the housing crisis,” she said.

“That’s called business,” Trump jumped in.

Yes. This happened.

KilgoreTrout

glennmagusharvey wrote: »

clinton was a little boring -- she could have come up with more zingers; that would have been more fun



is that the chaos in me talking? oops

I think the best course to take is to just let him come across as an asshole like he always does while you try to come across as the nice one who doesn't stoop to his level. The result: Clinton comes off as sympathetic for having to put up with debating this fool and as patient for being able to do so without losing her temper.

Based on what I heard her say tonight, I have to admit that it sounded good. If I knew less about her, I would want to vote for her right now. (To elaborate, at one point she was talking about private prisons being a bad thing, and as somebody who is against private prisons a part of me instinctively went "Hell yeah!" Less than a second later, I remembered that she's taken a lot of money from prison lobbyists, and that what she said could easily turn out to be an empty promise.) Now, if Clinton can inspire that reaction--even just for a second--from somebody like me who is cynical and doesn't trust her, she can definitely get other people behind her if she keeps doing what she's doing right now.

Bee

A warning as to why you shouldn't take online polls too seriously:

http://www.dailydot.com/layer8/trump-clinton-debate-online-polls-4chan-the-donald/?tw=dd

Trump enclaves in 4chan and Reddit bombarded just about every online poll they could find to say Trump won the debate.  But actual studies of debate respondents are saying Clinton won pretty handily.

glennmagusharvey

Including an audience response analysis by famed Republican pollster/strategist Frank Luntz, who Tweeted all about said analysis.

Bee

Not even Fox's own focus group could deny how badly Hillary curbstomped it.