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themselves into a corner. How could they possibly do anything but cheer
as Trump bombs Syria? They can’t.
I can't speak for anyone else, but I certainly am not. This particular action could be good for the FSA, sure, but...needless to say, at the very least, this wasn't the way a good way to do it. I'm not even sure it's good for vengeful gratification because I'm not sure how much pain Assad actually felt from this, considering that I'm hearing reports that he and his forces were warned of it.
From this point forward, there are basically only a few possibilities:
1. He doesn't attack Syria anymore. His action becomes little more than an empty threat and is will likely be pilloried by both hawks (who want him to do more) and doves (who didn't want him to do this in the first place), and it's not like doves will trust him anyway since he's already broken whatever trust they had.
2. He attacks Syria more. Doves and isolationists (of which there were a good number in his camp) will hate him. He becomes little more than a standard "neocon" and that actually gives an anti-war Dem a chance to scoop up anti-war/isolationist sentiment -- Trump did promise to avoid foreign wars and invest at home, and he'd have completely blown that promise.
2a. He gets the US totally involved. Russia becomes quite pissed off, of course, so he's going to leave himself up shit creek without a paddle, and I doubt the country is now in much of a mood for more war involvement in the Middle East, so he'll face a more protests, but this time there will be former Trump supporters who feel betrayed, among the protesters' ranks.
2b. He gets the US only tangentially involved. Probably the best possibility for him if this eventually leads to the fall of Assad. Russia will still be pissed off though. And if this doesn't lead to the fall of Assad, this just becomes like 2a, though perhaps only with a bit less strongly-opined opposition, as a waste of American money and American lives.
Hint: it's not.
Tuesday, April 11 - special election in Kansas's 4th Congressional District
Tuesday, April 18 - special election in Georgia's 6th Congressional District (first round; runoff if no one gets 50%)
If you've been following political election news you're probably aware of the special election in GA-06, a seat that Trump only barely won after Romney won it by a solid margin four years earlier.
KS-04, on the other hand, is basically new to the radar -- so new that despite it's ruby-red hue (its PVI is R+15), the NRCC is buying attack ads: http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/4/7/1650828/-Shock-upset-in-the-making-GOP-admits-Kansas-should-not-be-in-play-but-Kansas-is-in-play
KS-04 is a south-central Kansas district encompassing Wichita and surrounding rural areas.
I think it's become simultaneously fashionable to both hate on Trump and praise Trump.
Then again, ever since the media went from "This is the actual fact of the matter" to "This is what some guy said and even if it's a lie or extremely offensive (unless it's like, explicitly racist) we're just going to say what he said" I haven't really known what's going on with reality.
I was watching The Listening Post and I was really surprised at the whole proliferation of fake inaccurate /partisan news reports, probably because I'm not on social media and still trust my proper corporate overlords (actually mostly my Qatari overlords I guess) for news.
Hate is easy, work is hard. As funny as some of the stuff that's come out is (all of it from Samantha Bee and that is trufax) the truth is that the genuine response to wanting him out of office is to punish Republicans (election-wise) for being dumb enough to keep on with "as long as we're in control right?" and constantly berate Democrats for their inability to separate themselves from corporate money.
Social media exists, but instead of using it to genuinely mobilize and keep a march on to the next elections, you joke about Donald Trump, cause it's easier than talking about the issues everyday.
Maybe real life is just too hard and expecting people to put politics on top of their usual stuff is too much to ask, but I spend all day watching children's/grown-up children's cartoons and listening to music i barely understand and I still keep up with local and international politics somewhat okay.
I mean, I'd give my [least important appendage] away to live in a country where voting mattered and fighting the power on any level didn't throw your life into ruin.
Hopefully one day it will be universal.
Kansas state treasurer Ron Estes (R) has 60,945 votes (53%)
civil rights attorney James Thompson (D) has 51,467 votes (45%)
flight simulator instructor Chris Rockhold (L) has 1,971 votes (2%)
Previous election results, November 2016:
Trump (R) 60.2% and Clinton (D) 33.0% for president
Pompeo (R) 166,998 (60.67%) and Giroux (D) 81,495 (29.61%) for Representative (the position for which this special election is being held)
Next week: GA-06, where Trump only got 48% and Clinton 47%.
meanwhile
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/4/15/1653364/-First-Protest-Sign-In-Space-Autonomous-Space-Agency-Network-Trolls-Trump
Alabama - State House of Representatives District 67
Georgia - U.S. House of Representatives District 6
Georgia - State Senate District 32
Virginia - Prince William County Clerk of Circuit Court
GA-06 is the most prominent one, located in a more-educated/higher-income part of the northern suburbs of Atlanta, which Mitt Romney won convincingly (64%-38%) in 2012 but then Donald Trump won only barely (48%-47%) in 2016. It was previously occupied by now Health-and-Human-Services Secretary Tom Price (R). It has gained a lot of attention for former congressional aide and investigative filmmaker Jon Ossoff (D) raising an unusually large (for a House race; he raised $8.3M while campaigns even in wealthy suburbs usually don't go above a few million) amount of money in donations from people opposed to Trump, including a large number of small-amount donations. Five Democrats, eleven Republicans, and two independents are running.
GA-SD32 is also in the northern Atlanta suburbs, and was previously represented by State Sen. Judson Hill...who is running for GA-06. Romney won this district 67%-31%; 2016 presidential numbers are not available yet but given that the territory is similar; a similar drop-off is expected. Three Democrats and five Republicans are running.
AL-HD67 is a district encompassing all of Dallas County and part of Perry County, and is basically centered on Selma. It was represented by Darrio Melton, who was elected mayor of Selma. As a majority-minority district, it heavily favors Democrats. A special primary election between four Democrats was held on January 31, 2017, and Selma Municipal Judge Prince Chestnut (D) won that race with 70% of the vote, averting the need for a runoff primary. The special general election will be between Chestnut (D) and Tremayne "Toby" Gorden (independent), whom I can't find any info on.
Both Georgia races are "jungle primaries" meaning that multiple Democrats and Republicans can run in each race, and if no one gets 50%, a runoff election will be held. I think this would apply to the Alabama race as well but there are only two candidates.
Virginia's Prince William County is a northern Virginia county immediately southwest of the populous Fairfax County, and consists basically of suburbs/exurbs of Washington, DC.
Political background: Historically it was heavily Republican but in recent years it has trended Democratic, taking after Fairfax County, due in part to heavy population growth in this area. Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney 57%-42% here and Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump 58%-37%, but the county still leans Republican in other elected officials, with them controlling 2 of 5 congressional seats that include at least part of the county, 6 of 8 House of Delegates (i.e. state house) districts that include at least part of the county, and 6 of 8 seats on the Board of County Supervisors (where the chairman is controversy-baiting and Trump-supporting Corey Stewart who is now running for governor of Virginia), though Democrats control 3 of 5 state senate districts that include at least part of the county.
This race: The incumbent Clerk of Circuit Court, Michèle McQuigg (R), was first elected in 2008 and re-elected in 2015, but passed away on February 16, 2017. Two candidates are on the ballot -- lawyer Jacqueline C. Smith (D), who previously ran against McQuigg in 2015 and lost by a small margin, and Jackson H. Miller (R), delegate for district 50 of the House of Delegates and majority whip for the Republicans in that legislative chamber.
Virginia — Prince William County — Clerk of Circuit Court special election
Percentage of precincts reporting: 100 percent
Jacqueline C. Smith (D) 13,905 votes (53.93%)
Jackson Hunter Miller (R) 11,871 votes (46.04%)
D pickup.
Georgia races are still being counted. GA-06 seems somewhat likely to be heading to a runoff, but about 2/3 of the precincts have yet to be counted. GA-SD32 is almost certainly heading to a runoff.
Can't find info on Alabama race.
GA-06 is headed to a runoff, with Ossoff (D) taking about 48% of the vote (about 1% going to other Democrats) in the jungle primary. Runoff June 9th.
GA-SD32 is headed to a runoff. Runoff May 16th. Looks to be Christine Triebsch (D) vs. Kay Kirkpatrick (R); they finished with about 24% and 21% respectively today.
GA-06 is headed to a runoff, with Ossoff taking about 48% of the vote (about 1% going to other Democrats) in the jungle primary. Runoff June 9th.
GA-SD32 is headed to a runoff. Runoff May 16th.
Rundown of upcoming special elections, written by yours truly
(edit: more reader-friendly format here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/04/19/1654239/-UPCOMING-SPECIAL-ELECTIONS-(rest-of-Aprilend-of-June,-plus-one )
APRIL 25
CT-HD07 - downtown Hartford, U of Hartford (previous D incumbent elected to state senate; Obama 96.9% Romney 2.8%)
CT-HD68 - Watertown (previous R incumbent elected to state senate; Obama 38.4% Romney 60.4%)
APRIL 27
TN-HD95 PRIMARY - Collierville, Fisherville, eastern exurbs(?) of Memphis (separate party primaries; Dem unopposed in primary; see June 15 below)
APRIL 29
LA-SD02 JUNGLE(?) PRIMARY - Baton Rouge and points south and east along the MS River (previous D incumbent resigned & pled no contest to domestic abuse charges; Obama 63.9% Romney 35.1%)
MAY 2
SC-05 PRIMARY (separate primaries for each party? I think) - northern SC along NC border, incl. parts of Newberry, Spartanburg, Sumter Counties (previous R incumbent became OMB director; Clinton 38.8% Trump 57.3%; primary runoff May 16 if required)
MAY 9
OK-HD28 - east/southeast of Oklahoma City (previous R incumbent resigned to go to private sector; Obama 31.3% Romney 68.7%, and apparently the district has a large (~17%) population of Native Americans)
MAY 16
GA-SD32 RUNOFF - Sandy Plains, East Cobb, Westfield (jungle primary April 18; incumbent ran in GA-06 special; Obama 31.5% Romney 66.7%)
SC-05 PRIMARY RUNOFF (if required)
MAY 23
NH-HD Hillsborough 44 (two seat floterial district), Litchfield , The Mall of New Hampshire (previous R incumbent passed away; Obama 48.% Romney 50.8%)
NH-HD Carroll County 6 - Wolfeboro (two seat district), previous R incumbent resigned to join Gov. C. Sununu's administration; Obama 43.2% Romney 56.0%)
NY-SD30 - Harlem, Columbia U, Upper West Side, East Harlem (previous D incumbent elected to NYC Council; Obama 95.3%, Romney 3.8%)
NY-AD09 - Babylon, West Babylon, West Islip, East Massapequa, Gilgo Beach (previous R incumbent appointed town supervisor of Oyster Bay; Obama 43.4% Romney 55.5%)
MAY 25 (THURSDAY)
MT-AL (previous R incumbent became cabinet secretary; Clinton 35.9% Trump 56.5%)
MAY 27 (SATURDAY)
LA-SD02 RUNOFF (if necessary?, see note above on April 29)
MAY 30
SC-SD03 - western SC, north/west of Anderson (previous R incumbent elected LG, NOTE: April 11 primary produced two Republicans for runoff; Obama 26.7% Romney 71.7%)
SD-HD84 - east of Augusta, GA (previous R incumbent resigned / indicted on domestic violence and weapon charges; Obama 34.8% Romney 64.2%)
JUNE 6
CA-34 - all Dem runoff for Xavier Becerra's old seat (he's now CA AG)
JUNE 15 (THURSDAY)
TN-HD95 - Collierville/Fisherville (previous R incumbent resigned "amid accusations of sexual misconduct, but denied the claims"; Obama 23.4% Romney 75.8%)
JUNE 20
GA-06 RUNOFF (jungle primary April 18; Clinton 46.8% Trump 48.3%)
SC-05 (previous R incumbent became director of OMB; Clinton 38.8% Trump 57.3%)
SC-HD48 - Tega Cay, India Hook, SSW of Charlotte, NC (previous R incumbent resigned to run for SC-05; Obama 35.7% Romney 62.6%)
SC-HD70 - southeast of Columbia, Hopkins (previous D incumbent passed away; Obama 73.9% Romney 25.2%)
unscheduled:
NH-HD Hillsborough 15 (two-seat district), top half of Hillsborough 44 (see above) (previous R incumbent passed away; Obama 48.0% Romney 51.0%)