The End of the Kosovo Crisis?

Ironweaver

Before I get down to business, here is a short background for those not familiar with the issue.

Kosovo, the mostly Albanian-populated southern province of Serbia, under international protectorate since 1999, had declared independence in 2008. Serbia has refused to recognize it, and the four Serbian-populated municipalities in the north of Kosovo have refused to accept the rule of Kosovar instutitions. Several Serbian enclaves south of the river Ibar have either caved in to the pressure, or have blocked themselves off with barbed wires from the rest of the world. The past five years have been spent with Serbia and Kosovo waging a diplomatic battle over the control of northern Kosovo.

Today, Serbian Prime Minister Ivica Dačić and Kosovar Prime Minister Hashim Thaci have signed a provisional agreement in Brussels, where Serbia has agreed to give control of the north of Kosovo to the Kosovar government, in exchange for allowing the association of four Serbian-populated municipalities judicial and executive autonomy, as well as demilitarization. Any other Serbian-populated municipalities south of Ibar are free to join the Association. The most controversial part of the agreement is the 14th article, in which both sides agreed not to block each other's progress in the path towards EU membership, which some have understood as de facto recognizal of Kosovo's independence by Serbia. The agreement is yet to be ratified by the assemblies of both countries, but it is almost definite that both will agree to it.

Here is the full text of the agreement:

1. There will be an Association/Community of Serb majority municipalities in Kosovo. Membership will be open to any other municipalities provided the members are in agreement. 
2. The Community/Association will be created by statute. Its dissolution shall only take place by a decision of the participating municipalities. Legal guarantees will be provided by applicable law and constitutional law (including 2/3 majority rule).
3. The structures of the Association/Community will be established on the same basis as the existing statute of the Association of Kosovo municipalities e.g. President, vice President, Assembly, Council.
4. In accordance with the competences given by the European Charter of Local Self Government and Kosovo law the participating municipalities shall be entitled to cooperate in exercising their powers through the Community/Association collectively. The Association/Community will have full overview of the areas of economic development, education, health, urban and rural planning.
5. The Association/Community will exercise other additional competences as may be delegated by the central authorities
6. The Community/Association shall have a representative role to the central authorities and will have a seat in the communities consultative council for this purpose. In the pursuit of this rile a monitoring function is envisaged.
7. There shall be one police force in Kosovo called the Kosovo Police. All police in northern KOsovo shall be integrated in the Kosovo Police framework. Salaries will be only from the KP.
8. Members of other Serbian security structures will be offered a place in equivalent Kosovo structures.
9. There shall be a Police Regional Commander for the four northern Serb majority municipalities (Northern Mitrovica, Zvecan, Zubin Potok, and Leposavic). The Commander of this region shall be a Kosovo Serb nominated by the Ministry of Internal Affairs from a list provided by the four mayors on behalf of the Community/Association. The composition of the KP in the north will reflect the ethnic composition of the population in the four municipalities. (There will be another Regional Commander for the municipalities of Mitrovica South, Skenderaj and Vushtri). The regional commander of the four municipalities will cooperate with other regional commanders.
10. The judicial authorities will be integrated and operate within the Kosovo legal framework. the Appellate Court in Pristina will establish a panel composed of a majority of K/S judges to deal with all Kosovo Serb majority municipalities. A division of the Appellate Court, composed both by administrative staff and judges, will sit permanently in northern Mitrovica (Mitrovica District Court). Each panel of the above division will be composed by a majority of K/S judges. Appropriate judges will sit dependent on the nature of the case involved.
11. Municipal elections shall be organized in the northern municipalities in 2013 with the facilitation of the OSCE in accordance with Kosovo law and international standards.
12. An implementation plan including time frame shall be produced by April 26. In implementing this agreement the principle of transparent funding will be addressed.
13. Discussions on Energy and Telecoms will be intensified by the two sides and completed by June 15.
14. It is agreed that neither side will block, or encourage others to block, the other side's progress in the respective EU paths.
15. An implementation committee will be established by the two sides, with the facilitation of the EU.

However, Kosovar Serbs have rallied against the agreement and are saying that they won't allow it to be implemented.

lrdgck

Why do I have a feeling there'll be further problems... What is your opinion on that? 

Ironweaver

Well, for one, after a century of brutal imperialist rule by the Serbs, I believe that Kosovo deserves to be free from Serbia. On the other hand, "independent Kosovo" is nothing but a US puppet state, its independence is a farce. The only long-lasting solution is a Balkan Socialist Federation (or, Marxist wet dreams aside, all Balkan states entering a federal European state - which I am opposed to, but at least it'd solve the problems of ethnic struggle). But that cannot be achieved without at least some degree of ethnic and national reconciliation, and I believe that this is a right step towards it.

As for potential further problems - the only thing that I can envisage is the Serbs in Northern Kosovo declaring an independent statelet - Kosovo will without a doubt declare war on them, and Serbia will most likely intervene. It could cause a major shitstorm.

lrdgck

Would you be fine with federal Socialist European state, as opposed to just Balkan? As for the puppet state, heh, I'm pretty much a self-aware Gullible Lemming when it comes to politics, and I can hardly think of Kosovo as anything but some mix of puppet state, and a particularly clumsy attempt at justice through backyard social engineering.

Ironweaver

I'm perfectly fine with a European Socialist Federation as a long term goal, but believe that setting up a Balkan federation beforehand is integral. I believe that, generally, it is dangerous for smaller states to enter into unions with much larger ones due to a risk of power disbalance. They should group together beforehand, and try to achieve a level of political unity sufficient enough to enter the larger federation as a single entity.