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Comments
That's what he'd wish.
So yeah, I should've paid more attention to what's been going on in Ukraine. It's good to have a firm perspective of similarities and differences with these kind of situations in other places. I wonder if their repressive forces were as assholish as ours.
So, updates.
Student council president and Democratic Action's youth group leader Filippo Sevillano has been shot in the head. He's alive and out of bed, but still badly wounded.
A rally to the Nazional Assembly was made for deputee María Corina's entry. The rally was tear gassed, affecting her. All in all, she wasn't allowed in. Interestingly the OAS general secretary negated that she assisted in the position of Panama's ambassador but as Venezuelan deputee, which is telling because he's a sold-off.
Not even the UN's office is a safe place to protest. A group camping in front of their offices was attacked and dispersed with tear gas. They're back now.
In order to get around newspaper material shortage, a bunch of Colombian newspaper agencies are sending tons of paper to ours
I've also noticed that protests involving mostly students tend to be much more energetic, lively, and... I'm not sure if more organized, but definitely more eager to get beyond the "we have to get organized" part of organization.
Madurovich (or a ghost writer) wrote an article for the New York Times. It's worth noting that it's very clearly intended for international audiences, compared to local rethoric it's more focused on half-truths and less so on poker-faced lies (but still has its share of cynical bullshit). Oh, and doesn't read like the person saying it is functionally illiterate, which is somewhat refreshing. If you're curious about these claims feel free to ask.
I'm feeling free to ask. BTW is "Nazional Assembly" a typo or another of the puns of yours?
Punsies.
The Central University of Venezuela was once again attacked as a march was going to start there. The National Guard blocked entrances while paramilitaries raided the inside. Two students were beat up and stripped naked (again), a bunch of reporters were robbed of their equipment, and a student was kidnapped. In contrast, one infiltrator was found out and was starting to get beat up when student leaders stood up for him asnd protected him. Not all paramilitaries have the same luck.
Interestingly, Venevisión did broadcast that attack. (Vendevisión is the most submissive of "independent" national TV channels, the same one that refrained from broadcasting the Oscars, that they're daring to show the protests is telling.)
On that point, there's also been a bunch of firings and resignations within Globovisión recently, including a live resignation.
National Guardsmen are getting more free cars and homes shit. Guess we gotta keep up with making it the most unpleasant job ever.
There's also been a bunch of reports (and nasty photos) of repressive forces putting marbles into their shotgun barrels, serving as makeshift bullets.
On second thought, "complacency" is a better term than "collaborationism". Or maybe "cohabitation"?
The dialogue thing... well, it's complicated. The MUD (and the Students' Movement) did set a number of conditions (IIRC release of political prisoners, cease repression, dearm collectives, renewal of public powers, basically stuff that should go without saying but the regime won't accept anyways), and it even included Popular Will and Brave People's Alliance. So far so good, but now they're going for an "agenda-setting" pre-meeting, giving Maduro the chance to get photos of handshakes and letting him gloat about how he "put them in their place" to get them to dialogue and shit like that, exactly what he was looking for.
I've come to understand the "blackmail of Unity" argument from radical oppositors (does it still make sense to call them (us?) radicals?). It's said (and I agree) that whatever approach taken to restore democracy, it should be followed upon by the entire opposition, and ever since 2006 opposition parties' approach is to do an electoral campaign for whatever the next election is. The blackmail of Unity argument says that it's just a position taken to tacitly dismiss civil resistance so as to remain in the spotlight, justify softie political positions, not becoming a target for the regime (especially important for corrupt ones who have justified reasons to be targeted), and a number of other reasons, overall because even if your side isn't going to win the presidency it's a good, safe way to get votes and overall belong in the political system and thus profit from it, but also legitimizing the regime and overshadowing would-be civil resistance movements. I didn't see it that way since the electoral approach theoretically isn't incompatible with protests and such, as it was very often pointed out last year, but with the MUD's utter paralysis, certain remarks from the usual suspects, apparent interest in calming things down, and a divided opposition to compare sides with, I can see where they're coming from.
About my position... well, I can't really defend the MUD anymore. They've shown themselves completely uncapable of challenging the regime outside its own terms, which at this point is silly. I don't think I'll become an abstentionist or anything, but they're way too submissive for my tastes. I'll just go with the other students, that's an unity I like.
Somewhat related, Miguel Cocchiola (mayor of Valencia) has been accused of collaborating with the regime for a number of reasons, but above all being very diligent about removing barricades. A controversial topic, especially considering that in the case of mayors, well, that's their job, but then there's this photo of workers covering (filling?) a sewage drain with asphalt so that its cover couldn't be removed to block off transit.
As you can tell from the lack of updates, things have been somewhat uneventful lately. The protests haven't subsided one bit, but they haven't expanded noticeably either. The same goes for repression (although deadly force has been thankfully absent, at least as far as I know). According to this journalism piece, collectives and other officialist groups are retreating to slums to focus on dispersing protests there. Gee, so much for redeeming the poor.
Maybe they feel they crossed a line with the attack on the Central University of Venezuela? There's a history to it backfiring.
In solidarity with the student who was stripped naked, a Twitter campaign was made out of people posting photos of themselves nude, as well as public nudity.
And I've been rather worried that nobody has come up with a grand resistance strategy project thing yet. We haven't even decided if rioting and particularly (non-defensive) barricades is useful or not. I think not.
Everybody keeps telling me I'm getting thinner and my skin darker.
Mariana Ceballos has died. She was ran over last month as she was protesting.
About that "too submissive for my tastes" line, it really sounds pretentious, doesn't it? The thing is, I feel that the MUD goes out of their way to respect the regime, and well, that's a hindrance. You'd think this crisis would warrant a firmer stance against... well, everything the government does, but no, they've been doing the opposite.
And this is what I meant: that dialogue? It's happening anyways, despite conditions not being met and the fact that the government and two moderators have been consistently attacking the opposition and making it explicitly clear that they aren't going to yield anything. They just want to show that the MUD is subdued, which by all means seems true.
Also, John Kerry announced there wouldn't be sanctions if there's dialogue. Hopefully it's bullshit, but I think the announcement is in itself a loss.
At the very least the "radicals" have a good argument against traditionalists: this dialogue is happening because of the protests.
Gee, turning a couple notches on radicalism in the span of a year and especially the last two months is really emotionally straining, and I have the advantage of not having been tear gassed or anything.
Municipal elections have been announced for San Diego and San Cristobal.
Journalist Nairobi Pinto has disappeared, and authorities have remained silent about it despite requests from many other journalists.
Edit: Also a correction, the chancellor of Bolivia is not a mediator, the one from Ecuador is, and just as unsuitable.
Editedit: Oh, there's also this journalist accusing some MUD managers of negotiating magistrate and electoral rector positions with the PSUV, since they're short on deputee votes to elect them unilaterally.
So that dialogue happened, and... uhh, it wasn't as I expected. Maduro was the moderator, Miraflores presidential palace, and each exponent just talking about points, without the purpose of reaching an agreement about anything except a date for another meeting. That is, it wasn't a dialogue but an exposition. Now, I didn't watch it, I just followed it on Twitter (I can't stand the PSUV's cynicism), but apparently the MUD did a surprisingly good job at it (if using using the same old points), while the government just recycled the bullshit scapegoats such as the economic war, or scapegoat not-bullshit-but-outdated scapegoats such as the oil strike (motherfuckers I had to change schools over that one) and of course, April 11th, repeating each other while at it, and some even preferred to skip on their expositions, all on a highly publicized event on national broadcast (although late at night) and on a debate-like atmosphere, which never happens. Also, one of their exponents was a collective leader.
Now, I'm not sure if that was a good thing in the end. Nobody touched what I thought was currently the most relevant point (state terrorism), and except for Capriles' and Henry Ramos Allup's expositions, they didn't really attack the government's authority or anything, and I certainly didn't like Henry Falcón's "we either dialogue or kill each other" false dichotomy, all the while the government gets that dialoguer's costume and Maduro appears as the man of authority.
I might post a better summary later. Maybe I'll even watch it.
So... what day is it? Oh, it's April 11th, that day of the year, the 12th anniversary of the climax of easily the most turmulous political conflict during the roblution (except maybe the current one). And with lots of unanswered questions and possible interpretations (and conspiracy theories, including some believable ones) for both sides of the political fence. Here's a superficial rundown.
Prelude
Literally since the moment Chávez was sworn in (February 1999), due to his belligerent and sectarist stance and 1999's controvertial constituent assembly, he had a bunch of issues with numerous factors of society, such as the church and various unions, but especially the business world and media groups (ah yes, these stereotypes were true at the time).
In November 2001 Chávez used his enabling laws permit literally the day before it would expire, to decree 49 laws without consultation, including two extremely controversial ones: a land reform and an hidrocarbons law.
Pedro Carmona Estanga (president of Federation of Chambers and Associations of Commerce and Production of Venezuela (Fedecámaras)), Carlos Ortega (president of Workers' Confederation of Venezuela (CTV)) and some other guy agree to organize movilizations in protest against these measures.
Neither side relents, escalation happens, months go by.
The conflict worsens (April 7th 2002)
Chávez uses his handy whistle to fire a bunch of PDVSA's executives on TV.
PDVSA's employees call for a general strike for April 9th. The protests now demands Chávez' resignation of his charge, which he'll accept, they hope.
Presumably there's some conspiracy going on around this time.
The strike goes by successfully, successfully extend it to April 10th, and extend it indefinitely.
Dawn of the First Day (April 11th)
Shitloads of people congregate for a march, which is later redirected to the presidential palace, a final showdown of sorts.
Chávez' loyal and chubby friend General Rosendo has an announcement to make about something which he didn't accept:
(The Ávila Plan is a contingency plan involving getting the army to shoot at rioters, the same one that had caused a massacre 13 years earlier.)
Meanwhile...
(Note: That's the (now defunct) Metropolitan Police, the metropolitan mayor at the time was an oppositor.)
(Around 20 dead.)
The military high command has had enough of this bullshit. A bunch of them pronounce against the president, including a bunch who had been close to him until then. The entirety of the Armed Forces are now against the president.
The solution was to further press Chávez for the resignation of his charge, which he'll accept even if they have to make him accept it. Chávez is made to go to Tiuna fort to negotiate. A bunch of officialist figures flee, including Diosdado Cabello, then vice-president.
Dawn of the Second Day
General Lucas Rincón Romero's announcement to the nation. Translation:
(Note: They never showed a resignation letter or anything beyond their words to demonstrate the resignation of his charge, which he accepted.)
Carmona cheers.
Back at Tiuna fort there's a bunch of heated discussions between cliques of businessmen, militarymen and so on about getting a resignation letter from Chávez, what to do with him, and what to do about a transition government. Carmona's clique wants him to be interin president, other more institutional ones want to find Diosdado and follow protocols, presumably other groups had other interests in mind, it's particularly vague and photo-less so I'm just gonna skip the stuff going on at the fort.
Carmona is sworn in as interin president for absolutely no good reason.
For further arbitrarieties, they sign a transition document.
A bunch of opposition figures (mostly Carmona's buddies) applaud. After all, they get something out of the deal.
AFAIK there's no picture of it, so imagine there's a picture of a bunch of them beating ministers up.
There are manifestations (and some looting) protesting against Chávez' departure, against Carmona's swearing in, and demanding to see the letter with the resignation of his charge, which he accepted.
General Baduel has had enough of this bullshit. He prepares to bring Chávez back.
Dawn of the Third Day
Carlos Ortega sighs. Without any form of legitimacy, organizations and such withdraw support for Carmona.
Baduel and his newly made rescue squad pronounce against the new government.
General Vásquez Velasco too pronounces against the new government. They pronounced against human rights abuse, not against the contitution.
In a last ditch effort to help Carmona, TV channels decide to show cartoon marathons. It's not there's anything important going on.
Chávez' supporters congregate at Miraflores.
Oppositors flee from Miraflores before shit gets worse. María Corina's least favourite video.
They storm Miraflores facing no resistance. Diosdado is sworn in as provisional president.
And so it ends. Chávez is rescued from Tiuna fort facing no resistance, and crucifix in hand he promises to take a more conciliatory approach in governing, so as to avoid another conflict like this one. And he follows through, for a couple months.
I watched it (except for Maduro's hour-long intro and closing). At first I was only looking up to the interventions of Henrique Capriles' and Henry Ramos Allup's (for all his shady stuff, he talks about stuff that doesn't get heard on electoral campaigns and is scathing while at it), but well worth it anyways.
(Note: The burnt kindergarten refers to rioters causing a fire at one of the offices in the ministry of housing's building, which also holds a kindergarten, which had to be evacuated.)
Ramón Guillermo Aveledo (General Secretary of the Democratic Unity Roundtable): These dialogues should be a normal thing. This conflict is happening because there are no institutionality to solve issues. Let's have another one of these talks in the following weeks incorporating relevant representatives (students, etc.). Token remarks about paramilitaries, censorship, etc.
Elias Jaua (Minister of Foreign Affairs Miranda's paragovernor): You've incited violence by calling for protests and not considering Maduro as legitimate president, we've been very tolerant about your excesses, we beat you on municipal elections by far and, how nice of us, we had a Conference of Peace, both our political models can coexist under the constitution. He sounded reasonable, actually, what he says contrasts with what they do, but it sounded reasonable nonetheless.
Andrés Velásquez (Deputee): The students' protest is legitimate, we aren't here in their name, but they protest loss of faith in the government and dreaming of a prosperous, democratic country, points out scarcity and criminality, reiterates that there will be no negotiation but points out that they're discussing things the constitution mandates, makes a rundown on political prisoners and criminalization of protests and even shows a proposed law, hopes that something concrete will come out of this.
Aristóbulo Istúriz (Governor of Anzoátegui): Dialogue requires truth, and you're all lying because there are no detainees and those aren't peaceful protests. April 11th. Last year's violence about presidential elections. They don't recognise our victory on municipal elections. Daniel Ceballos is in with Colombian paramilitaries. Burnt kindergarten and university. You're criminalizing collectives. Rioters aren't students.
Roberto Enriquez (National President of COPEI): The fundamental problem is that the social pact has been broken and is causing the state to decay. The socialist model has been economically catastrophic and is unconstitutional. Real peace requires political inclusion.
Rafael Ramírez (Venezuelan Rockefeller): I think our economic model is fine. PDVSA stole our oil rent before we came along. The (true but misleading) decreased poverty statistic and the "the poor used to eat dog food" line (urban myth for obvious reasons). Rioters aren't students. The media causes violence. International economic war. Let's debate about economic stuff.
Henry Ramos Allup (General Secretary of Democratic Action): Explains the unconstitutionality in the government's principles of "revolution", "socialism", "hegemony" and "civic-military union". Brings up the non-deliberance and non-politization of the Armed Forces (and indirect attacks to Diosdado), condemning coup-conspiring, partidization of public powers, territorialization of protests, it's fine to ask for the president's resignation, lots of stuff.
Diosdado Cabello (President of the National Assembly): The opposition is sabotaging us. You promote violence. Barricaders kill people. April 11th. They don't respect our democratically, legitimate president chosen on tranparent elections and wants peace and love. Burnt kindergarten and university. You're criminalizing collectives. Also he mentions the supposed negotiations for magistrates and rectors, so maybe that's made up? Oh, and he looked as if he was going to blow up.
Omar Barboza (General Secretary of A New Era): (All these are official numbers) The public debt has 7-plied, 2013's inflation was 56%. The statistic about non-oil income lowering from 25% to 4% (true but misleading, although his point is still correct). 31% scarcity (true, and misleading against his point). Paying for deficit spending with money printing. Parafiscal funds. Four currency exchange rates.
José Pinto (General Secretary of Tupamaro, a minor party most closely associated with collectives): President Nicolás Maduro for Nobel Peace Prize, you're criminalizing collectives, Popular Will is a terrorist group organized by Leopordo López and we're asking for its dissolution. And students, I was also victim of repression when I was young so, like, whatever.
Julio borges (Deputee): Keep on protesting, boys. There are many reasons to protest, but basically because there's no future as it is. Devaluations. Decreased national production. Expropriated companies are devastated. Max prices' increase. Persecution at the National Assembly, and mentions Velásquez' proposal while at it.
Blanca Eekhout (Deputee): Revolutionary word salad.
At this point three officialist spokespersons drop out.
Simón Calzadilla (General Coordinator of Progressivist Movement of Venezuela): Paralized oil and gas production. We're were we are despite despite the revolution having had everything in its favour. Corruption, especially with currency exchange arbitrage and protected by cronyism. Students, like us during our time, are protesting because they can't trust their government or that it can guarantee them a future.
Juan José Molina (General Coordinator of Progressivist Advance): Paramilitarism and its coordination with state forces (and oddly, refers to it as if it's not something the government actively promotes, as if they were like corrupt street officers or something). Promotes disarming laws. Points out the extremely high murder rate. Criticizes the government's cynicism, especially towards unconstitutionalities since 2007's failed constitutional referendum.
Liborio Guarulla (Governor of Amazonas): Applauds the dialogue opportunity and dialogues in general, repudiates personal and partidistic agendas on both sides of the political fence. And points to last year's repression of a protest he called for against the takeover of some his governorship's custodies. Also he (accidentally?) mentions that there haven't been protests in Amazonas because they're democratic.
Henry Falcón (Governor of Lara): He speaks in a face-to-face way with a bunch of them (he's a former red so he knows them closely). The students protest are in defense of their future, and it's caused due to a political conflict caused by an economic mess, and points to examples of their fuckups, and applauds the dialogue opportunity. Also he speaks sloooowly.
Didalco Bolívar (President of For Social Democracy, one of those unimportant officialist parties): Simón Calzadilla was also part of the government a decade ago so he's also responsible for the economic crisis. April 11th. Oil Strike. The MUD is internally divided and they should get around that to form part of the commisions of truth/peace/economy. Criticizes Henry Falcón for having been part of the government. (?)
Henrique Capriles (President of Venezuela): Points out that last year's agreed full audit didn't happen, and that's the root of our political conflict along with institutional seizing, and that if it's not fixed it'll turn into something worse. There are two Venezuela's, the one with suitted people in that conference room, and the one under an economic crisis. Nicolás must respect those who wouldn't vote for him, and they can ask for his resignation just fine.
Jorge Rodríguez (Mayor of Libertador): April 11th. Cynically justifies territorialization of protests (Libertador is in west Caracas) as "territorialization of peace". Cynically and patronizingly talks about last year's post electoral violence and the burning down of health consultories that didn't happen. He cynically does the old veiled "west Caracas attacks east Caracas" threat. April 11th again. He cynically talks about not recognising others. Holy fuck is he hateful and hateable, I didn't bother watching it all. I guess they had to have someone sow divisionism.
So...
Something is clear, the officialist expositions weren't made to appeal to students, like, at all. They stick to the long-gone past when most of us were little children or hadn't been born yet, and I'd say José Pinto and Jorge Rodríguez were outright provocations. And I love how they have to somehow get around the fact that protesters are students.
I guess it couldn't have been an appeasement tactic since I want to protest harder now.
As for the MUD, I loved Allup's exposition, lots of constitutional principles. I'm rather disappointed in Capriles' tho, he simply said what he was saying earlier last year during and after elections, as if a reminder would change anything. I love the variety of topics they brought up, lots of stuff that doesn't get the spotlight it just got. I also felt Guarulla's and Falcón's were rather contentless, lots of conciliation but not enough talking about stuff, maybe I wasn't the target audience? I certainly was for Calzadilla's and Velásquez, the both of which I didn't know existed.
I still have some reservations about having accepted that "dialogue", besides what I said earlier (and that students were being repressed while at it) I also can't get over the nagging feeling that the government wouldn't have asked for it if they weren't going to ultimately benefit them, although maybe they couldn't get over the political cost of not putting up a dialoguing stance, and the MUD not accepting it would have been worse? Maybe I shouldn't be so distrusting? I still wish they would take a firmer stance against the government's excesses, though.
And I've come to realize that I love color-coding.
Edit: Oh, one thing, not all "collectives" are paramilitaries, some (most?) are simply groups who do social works around, that's where the you're-demonizing-collectives argument comes from.
José Cirilo Daza García has been killed, he was a National Policeman who was hit in a shootout between them and paramilitaries who had attacked opposition flyer deliverers. According to this article, that state's division (Lara) is fed up with them.
Also, I learned that Raúl Emilio Baduel (son of that other Raúl Baduel) has been sent to jail over a peaceful protest.
And I've noticed that outside isolated groups, my university hasn't organized actions for about two weeks now. I hope they get their stuff together soon.
Gabriel Daza was killed by presumed paramilitaries as he was collecting money for a Burning of Judas (National-Guard themed, apparently).
Nairobi Pinto (the missing journalist) has been found safe and sound. So safe and sound, in fact, that it cast suspicion on people who saw her press release along with Miguel Rodríguez Torres (Minister of State Terrorism) as if she was a kidnapee forcefully being made to pretend everything was alright.
There was another government+MUD dialogue, this time behind closed doors, the MUD is as passive as earlier and the government as belligerent as ever, but without the good point of having officialism get argumentally trounced on national broadcast. And that's how they lost their second wind to me.
And apparently "there was fraud in 2013's presidential elections" became a radical position sometime while I wasn't looking. While we're at it, I hadn't realized until now how deeply the Ghost of April 11th had penetrated (that is, the idea that protests are bad).
Protests have somewhat subsided recently, perhaps because of current festivities. And some students set up a camp a block away from home, how convenient.
It's April 19th, back in 1810 after the dethroning of King Ferdinand VII of Spain by Napoleonic forces, the people at the Council of Caracas decided they'd disregard the authority of the newly appointed general captain for the colony of Venezuela Vicente Emparan, and when he asked from the town hall's window to the people if they wanted him in charge, presbyter José Cortés de Madariaga behind him did signs to motivate the crowd to answer "no", which he accepted. A new government got made, and so the humble but ambitious Venezuela began its struggle for independence.
Revolutions are so suspenseful. As for news...
Repression in Chacao seems to be getting harsher. That, and manifestations next to churches and procession-protests (Holy Week) aren't immune from the National Police.
Leopoldo's wife Lilian Tintori released another video about him. He/his team have been doing videos and writing letters about the whole resistance thing. Uplifting, but in terms of direction it doesn't get less vague than asking for perseverance, non-violence, organization, etc. and by now they're starting to look like campaign ads. I hope he makes good use of his moment of glory and doesn't let it go by like how President Capriles did last year.
So yeah, a roadmap of sorts would be useful for the movement, you'd think the grownups would've come up with something, and some apparently know this, but here we are still running blind (although more organized than two months ago, at least).
Yesterday we saw one of those ominous white plateless pick-ups around the square that are rumored to kidnap protesters. I also read a tweet that said two students were arrested/kidnapped there, I'll ask what it's about.
The two kidnappings above are false. We saw two other plateless pick-ups pass by (or they're all the same one), maybe they're scouting?
I just realized that collective attacks have subsided considerably, or so it seems, in line with what I mentioned earlier about collectives retreating to slums to keep a tighter control there.
And now there's been an impasse between the MUD and Venezuelan Penal Forum (human right activist lawyers deep into helping detained protesters with legal counceling, they're by far the ones who've helped us the most). Some time ago the Forum claimed that the MUD rejected offers to take part in the Commission of Truth that may be expanded as part of the dialogue, and just now Aveledo accused the Forum's director Alfredo Romero of rejecting offered dates for meetings and accused him of lying. Now, theoretically Alfredo Romero is not the Forum and the accusation is true, but if this turns out to be a Forum vs. MUD thing, I know who virtually all protesters are going to side with. Either way that probably was better off sorted out in private. They now agreed to a meeting. It's worth noting that Romero belongs to the radical side of the opposition and has spoken against the dialogue.
So far there's been 2387 detained protesters. I'm just saying this so I can say that I'm getting these figures from the Forum.
Also about this dialogue thing, the topic's been brought up about that other dialogue a decade ago over those early political conflicts, suffice to say nothing good came out of it, the government ignored the agreements and the opposition couldn't enforce them. It's also the first time of many that the Carter Center (mediators) fucked us up. What's also been brought up, and I didn't know about it until the whole dialogue thing began, was an accusation that political parties appropriated control of the opposition movement (then headed by the coalition of parties, associations, unions, etc. Democratic Coordinator), settled things out with the government without a broad consultation with the rest of the opposition, and agreed to demovilize it without guarantees that the dialogue would have concrete outcomes, paving the way for the passive cohabitation thing I've been talking about. Alfredo Romero is one of those who thinks that.
As you can see, there's a strong precedent for being against the dialogue and to distrust those who would represent the opposition in it, and that was back in 2003 when there weren't such a ridiculous number of reasons as to why the dialogue wouldn't work out.
María Corina came here today. Cameras do make you look fatter. As expected she didn't really say anything we hadn't heard before, the other bad news is that her plane came late so she wasn't there for the convoked march, but t'was a good experience nonetheless.
Remember what I said last year about the little ones being given books with political propaganda in them? There's this movement against the related law (other movements have succeeded against similar educational reforms years ago) and there's been efforts to get the greater protest movement involved. This pleases me, the more the merrier.
And apparently being students give us immunity to being considered radicals by moderate oppositors. I don't like that, there's something honourable to being considered radically in favour of human rights.
And there's this idea among some... ummm, moderates? That Chacao's rioting is being financed by Popular Will to get the reds to destitute Ramón Muchacho so that they can win the municipality on forthcoming elections. I guess there's such a thing as radical moderates now.
You know, chilling out at a protest camp loaded with paper flowers and signs talking about ceasing repression and promoting peace and shit and passerbys telling us to get a job, I think that's somewhat what being a hippie was like.
María Corina visited our camp shortly after I left. Bummer. You know, I have my reservations about her (see Carmona Decree above) but I think her firm, outspoken attitude againsts the regime would do much good if it were more generalized among opposition politicians. Also she's AFAIK the only explicitly anti-populist politician around.
A bunch of workers at state siderurgics called for a strike to protest the prosecution of syndicalist Rubén González over organizing protests. He's now been released after spending years in jail. Poor guy, I didn't know he had been in jail until now.
Mérida state has been militarized, arms of war included. And I haven't heard news from Táchira in a while, I hope they aren't resignated.
And the Supreme Tribunal of Justice now legislated judged that you need permission to protest, plus other caveats that would make authorities have doubts about granting permissions, and reiterated the obligation of municipal police to assist in public order operations (with firearms?).
*gulp*
Officialist councilman Eliézer Otariza has been killed. Officially the motive is presumed to be robbery, unofficially the motive is presumed to be red mafia dealings. Apparently there's an history behind him, I didn't know who he was before these news so *shrug*, but apparently he was important within the government.
According to official shortage figures, corn-based cooking oil literally no longer exist in stores.
Apparently rioters have taken to burning public transport buses more often, it already happened now and then, but the practice seems to be getting ahold here, and two days ago ten buses were burnt in San Cristobal. Geeze, that sure is going to make the regime tremble. To be fair it's possible that it was an officialist operation, there was an incoming transport strike so the timing couldn't have been more convenient for retaliation.
Either way, more discipline would be nice.
María Corina and Juan Requesens have announced a four-step plan for getting out of this mess: 1) Awareness raising (what we've been doing so far), 2) Articulation between sectors of society for a National Front of sorts to put pressure into releasing political prisoners, restitution of public powers, and to raise awareness about political alternatives, 3) Transition (purging the National Bolibarbarian Armed Forces, national reconciliation), 4) Profit.
Ehh, it's not very clear to me and it reads like something of a political maneuver to pretend there's a strategy, but I'm pleased that two notorious figures have raised the topic, now it might get discussed more throughly, especially considering that Requesón is on equal standards with other student council presidents and they have to discuss that sort of thing. I assume.
The society articulation thing isn't really new, we've been trying to get other groups' support and have had a bunch of groups joining up in the denouncing (the Church was particularly scathing, and the psychologists' union also gave out handy anti-stress tips for this situation). Today there are marches for worker's day and apparently they were coordinated between both worker unions and the Student's Movement, hopefully they'll keep it that way.
The Sebin has now taken to raid human rights organizations' offices.
During the Worker's Day march I got to talk with a dude from San Francisco, a municipality said to be rife with collectives. State terrorism accounts are creepier when heard first-hand. According to him, oppositors around him are a majority, but keep a very low profile and wouldn't dare bang pots or paint graffiti or anything beyond casual complaining. When I've gone there it seemed completely normal, makes you wonder what else isn't as normal as it looks. It's also an example of something that's been mentioned often lately, that oppositors from such areas have to go to safer places if they want to protest (let's say... Chacao).
Also I'm pleased that the MUD's unanymous reaction to the Tribunal's decision against protests was to disregard it. It's not often that they openly talk about disobeying authorities. Oh, and the Communist Party of Venezuela doesn't like the decision, not as a matter of principle, but because it hinders their right to protest.
And Lilian Tintori is getting creepier with the Leopoldo thing. Also, Happy Birthday Leopoldo! (Late but whatevs.)
And now Minister of Home Affaires, Injustice and Peace of Chains and Graves Miguel Rodríguez Torres did another of those shows denouncing an international conspiracy and shit, this time he accused by name a shitload of politicians, activists, journalists, student leaders, presidents, miscellaneous scapegoats, most (all?) associated with the active/radical side of the opposition. Whether this marks a new phase on persecution remains to be seen.
Human Rights Watch released a 103-page report on these abuses.
Edit: Fermín Toro University's seat has been badly damaged by a fire caused (and protected from firefighters) by collectives.
Welp, 243 protesters were detained during a raid on Caracas' encampments, involving nearly a thousand National Guards and National Pigs, razing the camps.
Edit: Oh yeah, and like common criminals, they did it in the wee hours of the morning.
And in case you're wondering, the contrast between criminality rates and those hugeass police operations against students has not gone unnoticed.
Jorge Steven Colina Tovar has died, he and another National Policeman received a gunshot in confusing circumstances during the aftermath to today's raid.
And a couple days ago a bus driver suffered burn injuries as rioters set his bus on fire.
So the US's Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Roberta Jacobson said that some dialoguing MUD members asked them to not impose sanction on boligarchs, they deny it. Boy, did Twitter explode with oppository RAEG. To be fair to them, those sanctions have the possibility to backfire if the reds manage to use them as a scapegoat as usual.
Antonio Rivero showed up at a manifestation today, despite being in clandestinity.
The apartment building deputee Delsa Solozarno lives in was raided today, including the one whose tenant has parliamentary immunity.
Armed Forces members are getting more cars and houses, again.
Socialist International (of which Popular Will is a member) issued a statement demanding the government to cease persecution, release political prisoners, etc. About time an international leftist organization took a position against the government.
Julio Rodríguez, son of Guárico's governor Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, was detained during a manifestation (and immediately released, of course). Makes you wonder to which extent PSUV members/institutions can be reached out to with things like this.
The government is returning some expropriated farms to their former owners, after lay wasting them.
The MUD is putting the dialogue on standby, citing the fact that the PSUV hasn't followed through supposed agreements, plus the shitloads of statements that they aren't going to yield anything at all. Why are they ceasing dialogue now?
Hmph, reminds me of that joke about the possibility of introducing socialism to Sahara.
(edit: though something tells me I've probably told it in here like twice already.)
Yeh, that it'd cause sand shortages.
Anyhow, the reds are now denying that they're returning those farms.
And just now over 90 protesters were detained during a march today...
Also, Roberta Jacobson retracted her comment from the other day, she said she mixed up participants in the dialogue with other sectors of the opposition.
Edit: That makes over three thousand detainees...
President Jaime Lusinchi has died. He held the presidency from 1984 until 1989, succeeding Luis Herrera Campins and preceeding Carlos Andrés Pérez' second term. There is no longer any living non-provisional ex-president.
A LGBT march (for anti-homophobia day) was denied permission to go to Libertador. I think it had been convoked by Popular Will but otherwise wasn't related to "political" matters.
Harvard University granted some award to Leopoldo (one of their graduates).
Also, autonomous university professors are calling for a strike tomorrow. Odd that they hadn't convoked for something yet, come to think of it.
And with the previous crackdowns against protests, I'm seeing a lot of oppositors blaming those who convoke marches for the resulting repression. With oppositors like these...
Elections day. Reminder: Daniel Ceballos and Enzo Scarano were jailed by the regime, their wives are running as candidates. Obviously a very controversial election due to how it argueably accepts/legitimizes the mayors' destitution or the National Electoral Council, and the nepotistic nature of the opposition candidacies. Unlike previous elections (especially in recent years) I haven't heard/read much about irregularities or governmental abuse during the process, although of course, they were smaller. Also from what I heard the PSUV didn't care much for their candidates.
Results:
San Cristóbal (Táchira):
Patricia Gutiérrez de Ceballos - 73.62%
Alejandro Méndez - 25.45%
Abstention - 40.88%
San Diego (Carabobo):
Rosa Brandonisio de Scarano - 87.69%
Alexis Abreu - 11.63%
Abstention - 36.49%
Both are improvements for the opposition compared to their husbands' results, in terms of absolute and relative number of votes.
There's a lot of opposition cheering. As with everything that's been happening recently, I don't know what to make of it. Does it legitimize elections in the eyes of others? Did protests have to do with it? Was it a reaction to abuses? How much does the PSUV care?
Interestingly, you can see both sides of the opposition attributing the results to themselves.
Good luck to the new mayors. Do your best, and don't become like Eveling Trejo de Rosales.
Leaving that aside...
I haven't felt in the mood to participate in protests lately. I wonder if that's part of the feeling of hopelessness we were warned protests would bring...
It looks like the dialogue is not going to continue.
There was an interview today with Gaby Arellano, two things she said caused a backlash about The Exit (the resistance movement Leopoldo and María Corina proposed back in January (what I mentioned in this post) which included supporting the university protests (in this post) that started the whole thing) were that protests weren't meant to be a short-term thing (a misconception first based on detractors' strawman arguments and later by actual protesters) and that despite the deaths, the protests have been a success due to awareness-raising. The first brought a wave of I-told-you-so's from those same retractors, while the later naturally brought indignation due to its coldness (and the cold way she said it). To be fair I doubt there's a sensible way to say that even if it were unargueably true. Leaving aside the issue of putting value on lives, I'm not sure to which extent they've been good/bad for the opposition, only that the country is qualitatively different now.
I took the liberty to make a sliding scale of oppository positions about stuff, from more traditionalist/electoralist/partidist/"moderate" to more radical/resistancey/antipolitical. Come to think of it, it looks like something Glenn would write. It's easy to visualize just how messy the opposition's panorama is just by looking at the list's length and how all over the place oppositor's positions are, and that's not considering how quickly it can change. Obviously it's a very rough and subjective scale, but like I've mentioned before, writing these things help me put my own thoughts in perspective.
Johnny Rica has commited suicide. He was a student shot by paramilitaries two months ago during a protest, leaving him unable to walk.
That's the saddest thing I've heard about during this whole ordeal.
Iván Simonovis is starting a hunger strike to get humanitarian aid. He was a Metropolitan Police commissar who was (likely unfairly) prosecuted over events that occurred during the April 11th shooting above. For a long while he's been suffering from health complications and has been throughly denied medical assistance while keeping him in precarious conditions, all this despite lots of requests to at least get him said aid, some requests made by prominent reds.
Poor guy, I only learned last year that he was still in jail. I thought he had been released years ago.
A bunch of Chávez' 4-February coupsters mates went on to protest to the coupsters who run the country demanding their coupster-earned right to a pension and stuff, and to be allowed back into the Armed Forces. They were met with good tear gas and shit. I shouldn't be glad that they're getting a comeuppance of repression, so I'm adding this disclaimer while being glad that they're getting a comeuppance of repression.
Also, the protest head was detained and will likely get prosecuted. Alright, I'm not glad about that one.
It's been four months since the protests began. They've kept declining, and doesn't seem like they'll maintain themselves indefinitely. I wish I had a history book from the future to read how and when this will end, the uncertainty is maddening.
The anniversary of RCTV's downfall was recently, and a bunch of parallelism to these protests have been drawn: The move not to renew its broadcasting license drew ire from a lot of people (not just oppositors; it was the favourite national TV station), students in turn organized a bunch of protests in favour of the station and its freedom of speech (that was the beginning of its gradual deterioration, beyond verbal abuse), rallying large swathes of society into the cause, the inertia of such protests kept on and on and turned into a campaign against the constitutional referendum later that year (tl;dr: socialism and indefinite reelections) with the initiative of just-turned-oppositor General Raúl Baduel, and so despite the fact that opposition parties were virtually dead at the time, the students managed to barely, barely, make the referendum fail to pass.
Also, that's when Chávez coined the term "good gas".
Death certainly makes you famous, or at least less hated. For the first time ever I've heard that his presidency was overall a good thing or a downright great time.
Antonio Rivero offered to turn himself in in exchange for Iván Simonovis' liberty. Simonovis and his family rejected the offer. He's also ceasing his hunger strike, after advice/pleas from a lot of people, including his family.
There's been another magnicide/coup/whatever accusation lately, again involving María Corina, Diego Arria, etc., averaging to about one per month since last year, and again aknowledging illegal espionage and other abuses. I'm more interested about the MUD's response towards it, for the most part calling bullshit on it except for Henry Falcón and Aveledo doing those ambiguous this-should-be-investigated replies, granting them the benefit of the doubt, and Falcón even stating how he doesn't "accompany adventures" and pretty much saying that there's something to the accusation.
That aside, there's the usual problem that the MUD doesn't (can't?) really go beyond formal statements to defend against persecution.
(Note on the above: When I said death makes you less hated I was referring to President Lusinchi. D'oh.)
Carlos Vecchio showed up to put up a denounce at the UN seat, that is, in New York.
Remember what I said earlier about María Corina and Juan Requesens pretending there's a strategy? There actually is one, or at least a rough sketch of it, and it's been there since before February 12th when shit hit the fan, per some flyers they distributed at the time. For some reason it'd been kept very low-key. Anyhow, María Corina and Popular Will reiterated it on another manifestation and next step is the articulation of sectors of society (student councils, NGOs, parties, etc.) into a wider oppository front. They should have probably said that earlier when people were still paying attention, and more importantly, extremely riled up.
Not exactly an original idea, I just hope it actually materializes.
Táchira's transport unions are going on an indefinite strike, if I understand correctly as a protest over insecurity and vehicle parts scarcity.
And now Jorge Rodríguez in relation to the above accusation against María Corina said that "state security" is above due process. Oh, and a PSUV deputee talked about censoring Twitter stuff.
Edit: Oh yeah, there's this and this indignating pictures of Leopoldo in jail.
I just found the best opposition blog ever. (Non-Spanish-Friendly)
That's it for good news...
There's an arrest warrant for Diego Arria, Pedro Burelli and Ricardo Koesling, over the above allegations. They had been cited to declare as witnesses, and the warrant came the day before the hearing as they weren't in the country at the time, Arria presumably because he saw it coming, the other two because they don't actually live here.
Gaby Arellano is being cited as witness by the SEBIN, too...
And the Supreme Tribunal judged that electoral rectors with expired periods can stay there until the National Assembly gives a shit about replacing them.
I think at this point it's safe to say that the protests' momentum is gone.
Geeze...
I may have spoken too early about the protests' momentum, there were a bunch of them today. Will they keep on?
And María Corina is also being cited at the prosecutor's office.
Anyhow, the Central Bank of Venezuela released April (and May) inflation figures: 5.7% for both (compare 4.3% and 6.1% last year respectively), for an annualized inflation of 60.8%. hese figures are meant to be released the 10th of the next month, but they needed something like the World Cup innauguration as a distraction. Still no scarcity figures or GDP growth for the first trimester, maybe during the finals we'll get the news that we're under stagflation.
I was waiting for those figures to also mention that poverty has increased from 21.2% to 27.3%, and extreme poverty from 7.1% to 9.8%. For propaganda purposes official poverty figures were changed to be based purely on income, and for a long while showed a steady decrease (AFAIK it's not a manipulated figure), but it was just that, an unsustainable improvement based not on productivity, but on high oil prices, and the reality is getting back at us now. As with everything to do with socialism, it was just smoke and mirrors.
Not accounted for: insecurity, blackouts or human rights violations...
María Corina and Gaby Arellano assisted to their citations and left alright.
8 operatives were accused of perpetrating Bassil da Costa's murder (nothing about Juan Montoya, the collective they presumably killed right before). 7 of them got parole, the other being retained awaiting judgment. Meanwhile Leopoldo is still being accused of essentially having mind-controlling speech to cause riots. Good thing at least they failed to put the blame for the murder on Leopoldo as they initially tried to. Oh, and all the jailees and torturees.
"For friends, everything. For enemies, the law."
Although I just learned that three National Guardsmen judged responsible for Geraldine Moreno's murder did get jail time. I wonder why the triple-standard.
Economics time:
Extraofficially the annualized GDP growth for the first trimester this year was... -2.7%
The National Institute of Statistics and Central Bank of Venezuela are looking into changing how inflation and poverty are measured. Oh, lest I forget, years ago they changed it so that products under price controls weight heavily on inflation figures, so in practical terms these figures are somewhat higher than they claim (unless there's a price update, then it's the other way around).
Jorge Giordani has been kicked of the government or state institutions (reminder: he was the dogmatic socialist minister of planning, author of our economic model, overall wacko). The next day he wrote a letter briefly detailing his history within the government, and stating his disagreements with how things are being handled now. A couple notes: